Arch Manning NFL draft stock: When is Texas Longhorns quarterback eligible?

Over the last 55 years, we have seen Archie Manning go No. 2 overall to the New Orleans Saints in 1971, Peyton Manning go No. 1 overall to the Indianapolis Colts in 1998 and a few years later, Eli Manning go No. 1 overall to the then-San Diego Chargers before effectively forcing a trade over to the New York Giants. Yes, you better believe Arch Manning has an impossible standard to live up to.

For better or worse, it is in his blood to be a franchise quarterback. Manning is entering his third season of college football with the Texas Longhorns. The last two years he has backed up Quinn Ewers, playing hardly at all in 2023, but a little bit more here and there in 2024. With only two career starts under his belt, Manning has such a long way to go when it comes to entering the NFL Draft.

Because the Mannings will want to control the narrative if and when he decides to turn pro, you better believe everything will be calculated and premeditated like it was for his two Super Bowl-winning uncles. That is why even if Manning is eligible to enter the 2026 NFL Draft next spring, we should not even think about seeing him leave school until after the 2026 college season at the absolute earliest.

Let me explain why it would be a foolish errand for Manning to turn pro as soon as he is eligible.

When is Texas quarterback Arch Manning eligible to enter the NFL Draft?

Because Manning will be three years removed from his final season of high school football in 2025, he could technically enter the 2026 NFL Draft as a redshirt sophomore. If he does, he will have only been a starter for one college season. If we did the math, Manning would have no more than 18 career starts under his belt, two from last season and 16 should Texas end up playing for the national title.

Because of the NFL's infatuation with starting rookie quarterbacks as soon as they come into the league, it is hard to see any quarterback having great success in the NFL without roughly 30 career college starts under their belt. Assuming Manning starts for two years at Texas, we are looking at him having between 28 and 34 starts before he even thinks about turning pro. He could start in 2027, too.

What I am getting at is even though Manning could turn pro as early as 2026, he is infinitely more likely to enter the NFL Draft in 2027. In all honesty, it is still more likely that Manning exhausts all of his eligibility and enters the 2028 NFL Draft than turning pro after next season. Once again, the Mannings want to control the narrative surrounding Arch. Plus, it is not like he is in dire straits financially either...

Even though Manning could enter the 2026 NFL Draft, do not expect him to turn pro until 2027.