It has not been the start to the season Atlanta Braves fans imagined.
After injuries derailed their 2024 campaign, most folks thought the "healthier" Braves were destined for a more dominant 2025. This team won the World Series not long ago and Alex Anthopoulos has built, on paper, one of MLB's most talent-rich rosters. Even with all the injuries, the Braves won 84 games last season. This is a good team. On paper.
Instead, Atlanta appears to be trending in the wrong direction. The Braves are 1-8, the worst record in baseball, with a three-game homestand against the first-place Philadelphia Phillies coming up. It's way too early in the season to get too worked up over records, but this is not how Atlanta wanted start its redemption arc.
Max Fried and Charlie Morton left in the offseason, leaving the Braves' rotation extra vulnerable. Then Jurickson Profar, their highest-value signing this winter, was hit with an 80-game suspension for PED use. It feels an awful lot like last season, when the Braves just couldn't catch a break.
Help is on the way, as Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. should join the big-league squad soon enough, but the Braves are in a compromised position already. And now it just got worse.
Reynaldo López, a breakout All-Star in 2024, is out until at least July after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his shoulder, which the team termed a "clean-up."
Reynaldo López had arthroscopic shoulder surgery today, a “clean-up” procedure, Snitker said. He won’t throw for 12 weeks, then wi be re-examined. #Braves hope he’ll pitch again late in the season.
— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) April 8, 2025
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With Reynaldo López hurt, Braves' NL East odds are plummeting by the day
It's difficult to overstate López's importance to Atlanta — and how predictable this all was. López was sensational last season, but that was an outlier in a career peppered with injury scares. He wore down as the season progressed and was never a safe bet for a heavy innings load in 2025. We can't predict shoulder surgery, but Atlanta counting on him as their second-best starter in a shallow rotation was always a risk.
Now the Braves are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Even with Strider on his way back, the rotation is painfully thin. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner, but he isn't without his own history of injury issues. Strider will be returning from Tommy John, so who knows what to expect? Spencer Schwellenbach is dealing, but that's where the positives end.
With López out of commission, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Bryce Elder are all slated for regular starts. Holmes allowed four runs in four innings in his first start of the season. He's better cast as a swingman in the bullpen, not a high-leverage starter. Smith-Shawver is a walks machine. Elder's issues are well-documented. The Braves have plenty of young pitching talent in the pipeline, but none (aside from Schwellenbach) that has produced consistently in the majors.
Strider's return won't knock either Holmes or Smith-Shawver out of the rotation. Meanwhile, we will need to wait longer for Acuña's season debut. Already seven games below .500 and with a tough schedule on the horizon, it's not clear how the Braves can recover.
The Phillies are stocked with elite pitching and a time-proven offense. The Mets are going to stack runs all season with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Pete Alonso. Atlanta feels like the obvious third-best team in the division right now. But hey, let's make sure they can actually catch the Marlins and Nationals first.