Arkansas Bracketology: John Calipari is hanging by a thread, but a path remains

It's safe to say that this wasn't what Arkansas thought it was getting when it backed up the Brinks truck to offer John Calipari a path out of Kentucky last spring. Despite some star-studded transfers, many of whom followed Coach Cal from Lexington, the Razorbacks have underwhelmed in his first season in Fayetteville, dropping marquee non-conference games against Baylor and Illinois and then dropping their first five in the rugged SEC. When star freshman Boogie Fland was lost to injury, it seemed like the bottom might well and truly fall out.

To Calipari's credit, though, Arkansas has dug deep of late. The Hogs won three of four — including a potentially season-defining win in a rabid Rupp Arena — to stabilize things, then nearly pulled a home upset of Alabama this past weekend. In Fland's absence, FAU transfer Johnell Davis and former Kentucky big Zvonimir Ivisic have caught fire, and suddenly Arkansas has the sort of identity they were searching for over much of the season's first three months.

Now the question becomes: Is it all too little, too late for the team's chances of making the NCAA Tournament? The latest Bracketology update says maybe, although a glimmer of hope still remains.

Arkansas bracketology: ESPN projects Hogs as first team out of NCAA Tournament

We'll get the bad news out of the way first. Joe Lunardi released his latest bracket projection over at ESPN on Monday morning, and it sees Arkansas as the first team left out of the field of 68. It's not hard to see why: The Razorbacks dropped a couple of ugly games at home to Oklahoma and on the road to LSU, and their weak non-conference schedule (259th in the country, per KenPom) didn't give them a ton of other opportunities for resume-boosting wins. At 14-9 overall and 3-7 in conference, there's almost zero margin for error left.

The good news, however, is that Arkansas might not need much based on how the rest of their regular-season schedule shapes up. If the Razorbacks keep playing the way they have been over the last couple of weeks, they can still make a tournament run yet.

Friendly closing schedule gives John Calipari a realistic path

Arkansas' three Quad 1 wins (at Kentucky, at Texas, Michigan on a neutral floor) give it a foundation on which to build, and it's hard to ask for a better closing schedule. Sure, road trips to top-10 Auburn and Texas A&M remain, but even if you chalk those up as automatic losses, the rest is very navigable. The Razorbacks still have four very winnable home games left — LSU, Missouri, Texas and Mississippi State — plus road trips to South Carolina and Vanderbilt.

Let's say the Razorbacks lose to Auburn, Texas A&M and, say, Missouri, and beat LSU, Texas, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Vandy. That 5-3 close would get them to 19-12 overall and 8-10 in what is far and away the toughest conference in America, with Mississippi State and Vanderbilt providing two more Quad 1 wins. Even without a deep run in the SEC Tournament in Nashville, that feels like a resume that will elevate the Hogs above their bubble competition, and maybe help Calipari salvage what was shaping up to be a disastrous debut season.