Arkansas bubble update: John Calipari's tourney hopes take major hit with loss to Texas A&M

John Calipari's first season with the Arkansas Razorbacks has been a rollercoaster, but not in the traditional sense; most rollercoasters end right back where they started, and while a hot streak to end the season could land this Arkansas team around where they started the year — No. 16 in the AP poll and a clear tourney team — it's looking more realistic that this coaster will finish on a whole different track... a track that includes an NIT bid.

A win against Texas A&M on Saturday would have gone a long way to punching Arknasas' ticket into the dance. Instead, the Razorbacks let a quick start slip away and couldn't get back over the hump, losing 69-61 in College Station. Now 15-10 and 4-8 in SEC play, things are awfully precarious for Calipari and Arkansas as we enter the backhalf of February.

Calipari and Arkansas need to spring an upset

"For us to bust through, we gotta beat somebody," said John Calipari postgame. Yeah, that's about right.

Arkansas has games remaining against Auburn, Missouri and Mississippi State. Winning two of those games — plus strong showings against Texas, Vanderbilt and South Carolina — is probably a requirement for this team to crack the NCAA Tournament.

If they finish the year 19-12 and 8-10 in SEC play with a strong finish to the year... that likely does the trick, although it will surely upset some fans of mid-major schools that a sub-.500 team in conference play can steal an at-large bid. If Arkansas knocks off Auburn and Missouri but stumbles against one or two of is unranked opponents, I wouldn't personally put them in the tournament, but the selection committee might still give them the benefit of the doubt.

Playing in the SEC might be Calipari's best argument for getting into the dance. Winning around half of the games against an extremely strong conference might be enough in a year that the narrative is (understandably) all about how deep this conference is.