Arkansas has some good wins on its resume; beating Michigan and Kentucky is nothing to scoff at. Plus, the Razorbacks play in the toughest conference in college basketball, so losses are expected.
But after falling to No. 1 Auburn on Wednesday night, 67-60, the losses have probably gone beyond what the selection committee can overlook, even in a brutal conference. At the moment, I have them on the wrong side of the bubble.
Now 15-11 and 4-9 in conference play, the Razorbacks are probably on the outside looking in right now with five games to play. I'm not proclaiming them dead to rights because if they finish the season 4-1, they'd be 19-12 on the season and 8-10 in conference play. With how deep the conference is, I'd be shocked if a team with that record misses the tourney. Even an 18-13 finish with a win or two in the SEC Tournament will likely do the trick, whether you think that's reasonable or not.
Still, that team is purely hypothetical. This team has hung close with Texas A&M and Auburn in back-to-back games, but eventually, those hard-fought losses... are just losses. As of right now, about 11 PM EST on February 19th, I do not think this team would get into the NCAA Tournament.
Arkansas is not dead, but they're bleeding out
Beating Missouri on Saturday could just about single-handedly save the inaugural season of John Calipari at Arkansas. 16-11 and 15-12 look a whole lot different, and another ranked win could be the resume-builder the Hogs need to sneak their way in — assuming they don't trip up against South Carolina or Texas.
Tonight's loss — while still a loss — doesn't completely knock them off the bubble because it was to the best team in the country. Again, say what you will about how good of a team Arkansas truly is (I don't think they're a tourney team) but they do play in the SEC, making most losses "fine" losses.