Nolan Arenado tried plenty of fans' patience this winter, when he turned down a trade that would've sent him from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Houston Astros — and kneecapped the Cardinals' offseason in the process. At the time, it seemed like sheer stubbornness, an aging star trying engineer his way to a desired location well past the point at which any of those desired locations were actually realistic.
Now, though, it seems like Arenado knew something everybody else didn't. With Houston heading to St. Louis to kick off an interleague series against the Cardinals on Tuesday night, the third baseman once again had to field questions about why his winter went down the way it did. And Arenado calmly explained his thought process once again, a thought process that the Astros' slow start to the 2025 season is validating with each loss.
For more news and rumors, check out MLB Insider Robert Murray’s work on The Baseball Insiders podcast, subscribe to The Moonshot, our weekly MLB newsletter, and join the discord to get the inside scoop during the MLB season.
Astros slow start offers the ultimate validation for Nolan Arenado
While the reason behind refusing a move to Houston was unclear at the time, we learned during spring training that it stemmed from uncertainty about the Astros' direction as a franchise. Arenado reiterated that idea again on Tuesday, telling reporters that, especially in the wake of the Kyle Tucker trade to the Chicago Cubs, he wanted to see where Houston's roster wound up before committing.
“[Tucker] is one of the best players in the game," Arenado said, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. "When you see a team trade him, 99 out of 100 players would probably be wondering, ‘What does that mean?’ That’s the question I asked myself."
Arenado was asked to make a decision back in mid-December. Tucker had just been traded away, leaving a gaping hole in the outfield, while Alex Bregman was reportedly set to move on in free agency. Oh, and Justin Verlander was also gone, and Framber Valdez's pending free agency threw his future with the team into question as well.
Given all that, you can understand why Arenado might not have been jumping at the chance to hitch his wagon to Houston for the remainder of his career. Especially when doing so meant uprooting his family at a moment's notice. So his response was "well, let me see what sort of team you can build for next season," while acknowledging that the Astros might not want to wait around for his approval.
“I respect the Astros because they can’t just wait for me to make my decision,” Arenado said. “They have to move on and they have to make their team better, which they did. They got [first baseman Christian] Walker and they did some other things. I can see how it was taken as ‘no,’ but they know I didn’t say ‘no.’"
Lo and behold, weeks into the 2025 season, the Astros find themselves at 7-9 and in fourth place in a very winnable AL West. The lineup ranks among the worst in the league, while the team's starting rotation has pitched to a 4.43 ERA that ranks 21st in baseball. There's still talent here, but they look ... well, like a team that might be about to embark on a bit of a reset next offseason. You know, like Arenado thought they might.