Astros interest in star third baseman shows they're done with Alex Bregman

The Astros got younger by trading Kyle Tucker, but they may get much older if they land their new third base target.
Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) reacts after a play during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
Sep 8, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) reacts after a play during the fifth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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Astros fans hoping to see Alex Bregman sign a lucrative contract extension to spend the rest of his career in Houston are about to be disappointed.

Houston's front office is sending a clear message that it's ready to move on from Bregman by pursuing a trade with the Cardinals that would bring in veteran Nolan Arenado to become their new third baseman.

Some Astros fans might have believed their team was heading towards a youth movement after flipping Kyle Tucker for young prospects and 25 year-old Isaac Paredes.

That is not the direction Houston is choosing. The team's desire to make a deal for Arenado makes it clear that the organization wants to retool rather than rebuild.

The Athletic is reporting that the Astros are now a "serious suitor" for the veteran infielder. Arenado should not command a strong return in a trade due to his contract status. He still has three years and $52 million left on the deal he signed back in 2019. That is a big reason why St. Louis is open to offloading such a popular play in a trade this offseason.

The years and dollars left on Arenado's deal are significantly less than what the Astros would need to commit to bring Bregman back into the fold. He'll be looking for a deal that will give him a minimum of five years and could pay him upwards of $30 million per season. It is clear that Houston is not comfortable meeting his contract demands.

Effectively swapping Arenado for Bregman does represent an on-field downgrade for the Astros. Bregman provided his club 4.1 WAR versus Arenado's mark of 2.5. The fact that Bregman is three years younger than Arenado also makes it more likely he'll hold his value in 2025 while Arenado might continue to see significant age-related decline.

It's still unfair to judge this decision by Houston's front office in a vacuum. Letting Bregman go because they feel he won't live up to his next contract is a defensible decision. The key for Houston will be to see what else they do with the money they save by letting their franchise pillar walk in free agency. Trading for Arenado can be part of the solution but more moves will need to be made to fill the void Bregman will leave behind.