3 free agents the Atlanta Braves should sign, 2 to avoid

After a historic 2023 season, the Atlanta Braves came back and did little to match their high expectations. Atlanta crawled their way to the Wild Card round making it via a three-way tie between themselves, the Mets, and the D-Backs who were promptly eliminated as the New York and Atlanta entered. The Braves would finish the season after being booted by the Padres in the NLWC, losing the series 0-2.

The Braves had dealt with crippling injuries all year to star players such as Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley. Other injured stars such as Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II made it back for the Wild Card round, but as they came back, their two most reliable pitchers, Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez, fell injured.

This offseason, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is taking a more frugal approach. Rather than chase a top free agent, he is cutting salary like he did in trading Jorge Soler and looking for bargains hoping to stay under the third luxury tax bracket. Over the years, Anthopoulos has traded for and signed diamonds in the rough such as Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Joc Pederson, and the aforementioned Soler quite triumphantly.

But what opportunities lie in this offseason's free agency market he could take advantage of? Let’s take a look.

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The Atlanta Braves should sign...

3. Walker Buehler

The elite names on the free agent market this offseason are already swarmed with attention. But among these is a forgotten elite arm that has recently struggled but has shown that he can still pitch like the indomitable hurler he was in years past.

If the Braves are scouring the field hoping to salvage another banged-up, elite arm like they did with Chris Sale, Walker Buehler seems to be their best opportunity. Buehler has only pitched 140.1 innings since 2022 missing all of 2023 and has posted a rather ghastly 4.75 ERA. But in 2021, before all the injuries, Buehler threw a career-low 2.47 ERA over 207.2 innings. The question now is: can the Braves turn him around?

To start, if the Braves can do it with Sale, whose last decent performance prior to 2024 was in 2018, then yes, they can do it with Buehler, but the kicker is that they likely won’t need to. In the 2024 postseason, Buehler gave the worst start of his postseason career when he gave up six earned runs in the second inning of the NLDS against the Padres. However, that was the only inning in this past postseason where he surrendered a run. He finished the postseason having pitched 15 innings, blanking the Mets and Yankees as well as taking on the role of closer for the World Series finale.

With a career 3.04 postseason ERA across 94.2 innings, Buehler is one of the best postseason pitchers still active. He maintains an incredible 0.47 ERA through 19 World Series innings. Rumor has it that the Braves have already set their sights on him. If Anthopoulos is looking for an inexpensive pitcher with top-tier ace potential, Buehler is worth a shot.

2. Michael Soroka

Michael Soroka began his career with the Braves as a breakout starter and future top-of-the-line ace. But after coming sixth in the Cy Young voting and second in the ROY race, Soroka was constantly injured year after year. From 2020 through 2023, Soroka only threw 46 innings. The one-year stud was out for all of 2021 and 2022. But injuries aside, another reason to be wary of Soroka was his performance. In 2024, Soroka pitched to a 4.74 ERA through 79.2 innings. But there is an upside in this number that is worth a look.

Mitchell Barbee of House That Hank Built recently suggested a Soroka-Braves reunion would benefit the Braves if he returns to Atlanta as a reliever. In his detailed assessment, Barbee noted Soroka’s success from the bullpen. Barbee had this to say:

“After being traded by the Braves during the 2023-2024 offseason, the former first-round draft pick started nine games with the White Sox, earned a 6.39 ERA, and an even worse 6.76 FIP. He struck out as many batters as he walked and allowed 10 long balls… In 36 innings as a reliever, he had a much more palatable 2.75 ERA, and while he still issues plenty of free passes (his BB% actually increased by 0.5%), his strikeout rate skyrocketed. Soroka was only striking out 12.4% of the batters he faced as a starter. As a reliever, he struck out 39% of batters.”

This offseason, with relievers AJ Minter, Luke Jackson, John Brebbia, and Jesse Chavez testing the free agent market, the Braves are going to need a reliable bullpen arm. Given his injuries and poor performance as a starter, Soroka will not be expensive. If he can continue his worthwhile performance as a reliever, the Braves will have gotten away with yet another steal, and potentially a lot more if he can be converted back to a successful starter.

1. Jurickson Profar

Given his recent success, Jurickson Profar may be a little more expensive than Anthopoulos might hope for, but it seems he dumped enough names from the payroll to afford him. If he can repeat 2024’s success, Profar would make a solid addition. In 2024, Profar slashed a respectable .280/.380/.459/.839 with 24 home runs, all career-highs for the 11-year MLB veteran (did not play in 2014 due to injury) and worthy of his first Silver Slugger.

The Braves (if they can stay healthy) will have tons of firepower next season with the remainder of their injured players coming back. But having been stifled in the postseason for three consecutive seasons, it would be reasonable to add another quality bat or two. Their main weakness all year has been the inability to hit and score runs. Given the Kelenic/Duvall experiment didn’t pan out so well, upgrading left field will do the Braves some good.

The one serious concern with Profar is his lack of a reliable track record. If this past year was just a fluke, it would be hard to swallow when paying his new salary. But for the money, unless the Braves can muster an appealing trade package, it seems Profar is their best bet.

The Atlanta Braves should avoid...

2. Willy Adames

One name that has been frequently linked to the Braves is Willy Adames. Adames, like Profar, is coming off a season to remember. Adames slashed .251/.331/.462/.794 with a career-high 32 home runs. The Braves will already have a power-heavy lineup, but one can never have too much thump. Adding Adames to the middle of the lineup would not only add much-needed depth but provide more power behind Marcell Ozuna where they need it. So, why avoid someone who could easily improve the lineup?

These ‘Willy Adames’ rumors swirl largely because Orlando Arcia had a year to forget. Arcia is coming off a year where he hit .218 with 17 home runs. His home run total matches his high from 2023, however his performance at the plate this past year just about assures he will not be the starting shortstop next season. It was thought that the upcoming Nacho Alvarez Jr. (Braves number 4 prospect according to MLB Pipeline) was set to take over for Arcia who will soon be a free agent (club option for 2026).

But filling the shortstop position with Adames leaves no room for Alvarez. Alvarez, who will be 22 next season, was seen as the future of the Braves. The Braves could trade Alvarez and sign Adames, but the Atlanta farm system is somewhat depleted. Any war for trade candidates would leave the Braves outgunned for the top names on the market.

But as long as Adames can perform like he did in 2024, it will be worth it, right? This leaves us one last question Anthopoulos will need to answer.

Adames will see a nice pay raise and there will be numerous bidders that are willing to spend more than the Braves. Should the Braves be willing to go all in on Adames? That brings us to the key reason the Braves should avoid him.

Adames’ defense has drawn some concern that a possible position change will be needed further down the road. If that is the case, he is blocked by Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies. I don’t want to say Adames is a ‘must avoid,’ but his defense really has tumbled downhill quickly. With that said, if the Braves only have enough money to significantly improve two positions, it would likely be better to focus on the rotation and the outfield, not shortstop.

1. Max Fried

One surefire name Braves fans know and love is Max Fried. Last season, Fried threw 174.1 innings to the tune of a 3.25 ERA with 166 strikeouts. With those numbers, Fried made a great case for the Braves to re-sign him. But there are a few key reasons not to pursue Fried (besides the injuries that have only severely hindered him for one season).

For one, there is his postseason record. Fried owns an unsightly 5.10 postseason ERA through 67 innings. This isn’t to say Fried never did well in the postseason as he has thrown numerous gems, but the numbers here are not on his side. The last game of the Braves 2024 season undoubtedly left a bad taste in the mouths of Braves fans. However, it’s hard to blame Fried for all the damage since he produced a great amount of soft contact. But his postseason record aside, the biggest reason a reunion shouldn’t be in the cards is the money.

Fried is a great pitcher. Fried was a serious contender in two Cy Young races coming as close as runner-up in 2022 with a 2.48 ERA. With this kind of regular season track record, Fried is due for a big payday. If the Braves were desperate for pitching, pursuing Fried would make more sense. But the Braves will go into next season with a star-studded rotation featuring Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Ian Anderson, and Spencer Schwellenbach. With this in mind, the Braves should be more interested in getting a less expensive insurance arm that has star potential like Walker Buehler.