Following an implosion in Orlando on Tuesday evening, the Atlanta Hawks will host an win-or-go-home matchup on Friday night at State Farm Arena. For almost 24 hours, the Hawks did not know which opponent they would face, but the Miami Heat trounced the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday, setting a matchup between very familiar foes.
The winner will take on the Cleveland Cavaliers in a best-of-seven playoff series, with the loser wrapping things up for the 2024-25 season.
Season series between the Hawks and the Heat
As division rivals, the Hawks and Heat meet four times annually. In fitting fashion, the teams split the four matchups in 2024-25, with the home team winning all four contests. Miami did win the most recent game on March 27, and none of the four matchups were decided by fewer than ten points on the final scoreboard.
All told, the overall four-game matchup yielded relatively similar statistical profiles for the two teams. Each squad shot well, posting 59.9 percent true shooting or better, but the margins tended to decide the winner of each matchup. Also, the relative pace of the matchups was quite slow, with only 96.5 possessions per game.
There's a history here
Beyond the four-game sample this season, the Hawks and Heat have seen plenty of each other in recent postseason settings. This is the second Play-In tilt between the teams, with Atlanta winning the first time in 2023. In fact, the Hawks went into Miami and thumped the Heat that season, overwhelming Miami with offensive rebounding and pulling off a (mild) upset in decisive fashion.
In the prior season of 2021-22, the Hawks and Heat met in the first round of the playoffs, and Miami won decisively. On one hand, that was an expected outcome in that Miami was the No. 1 seed that season, but it was also the follow-up to Atlanta's run to the Eastern Conference Finals and the Hawks flopped in relatively epic fashion. That was particularly true of Trae Young, who has a strong overall playoff track record. He had the worst series of his career by a wide margin against Miami in 2022.
Things are different for both teams
As is the case over a lot of seasons, both teams have changed in terms of roster construction. Ironically, Miami is more similar than Atlanta, at least through the lens of the players who participated in the four regular season matchups. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, Miami's top two players, appeared in all four games for the Heat, with each of their supporting rotation pieces playing in three of the four tilts. Of course, the Heat also made a very substantial mid-season trade, sending Jimmy Butler to Golden State, but Butler never saw the floor against Atlanta this season.
For the Hawks, Jalen Johnson isn't walking through that door, as the talented power forward is out for the season with injury. Atlanta also traded both De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic midseason, overhauling the roster, and the Hawks lean much more into offense than defense with their currently available personnel.
Keys to the game
The first "key" is a key in the vast majority of matchups, but it is hard to avoid after what happened on Tuesday in Orlando. The Hawks have to make shots. Atlanta had arguably its worst shooting game of the entire season in the loss to the Magic, headlined by season-worst marks in 3-point attempts (21) and 3-pointers made (4). Miami is a friendlier opponent for opposing offenses than Orlando is, but the Hawks do have overall shooting questions and this is not the time for them to bubble.
Beyond that, the Heat have been excellent on the defensive glass and in preventing free throw attempts, posting top-five marks in both defensive areas since the Butler trade. Atlanta does not completely rely on offensive rebounding to sustain itself in the way that some teams might, but the Hawks are above-average in that category, and Young in particular leans on free throw creation as a part of his offensive arsenal.
On the other end, Atlanta must return to its havoc creation roots. The Hawks failed to turn the Magic over with any regularity on Tuesday, and that bit them when Orlando out-shot Atlanta over 48 minutes. Dyson Daniels is the key to that area for the Hawks, but he also has the most high-profile individual matchup in this game as he defends Tyler Herro for the vast majority of the night.
Overall outlook
As of Thursday morning, the Hawks are only 1-point favorites in the betting market, indicating a slight lean to Miami in perceived team quality that is marginally out-weighed by home-court advantage in Atlanta. In effect, this is a projected coin flip, and needless to say, the Hawks must put together a much more fine-tuned performance than they did in Orlando. If they fail to do so, the summer could begin early in Atlanta.