The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery does not arrive until May 12, but the Atlanta Hawks are in a favorable position. The Hawks own the No. 22 overall pick, via the Lakers, and Atlanta will enter the lottery with more than a 95 percent chance to pick at either No. 13 or No. 14 with a pick conveyed by the Sacramento Kings.
As such, pre-lottery mock drafts are making the rounds before the ping-pong balls bounce, and an interesting hypothetical emerged from perhaps the most mainstream of sources. Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo of ESPN pegged Michigan State guard Jase Richardson as the "most likely pick if the Hawks stay at No. 13," and Woo went on to outline the case for the 19-year-old guard.
"Richardson made a good case for himself this season as a solid complementary player with room to grow, displaying well-rounded ability at Michigan State and solid effort playing on and off the ball. That versatility makes sense with the Hawks' current personnel as a plug-and-play option, rotating in behind and alongside Trae Young and Dyson Daniels with the ability to balance lineups."
At present, Richardson is projected as a lottery pick in the majority of mock drafts. In fact, Richardson rates in the top 11 on several NBA Draft big boards, including that of Kevin O'Connor of Yahoo, the folks at Tankathon, and Chris Kline here of FanSided.
Jase Richardson could be a great value for the Hawks at No. 13
From a statistical standpoint, Richardson ranked second among freshmen nationally, trailing only projected No. 1 pick Cooper Flagg, and ninth overall in box plus-minus (found at sports-reference). That is a very strong indicator for a prospect, and Richardson finished the season averaging 12.1 points (in 25.3 minutes per game) on 62.4 percent true shooting in 36 appearances.
Over the last 15 games of Michigan State's season, Richardson averaged 16.1 points and 4.6 rebounds per game with 47/42/82 shooting, and that stretch coincided with the freshman guard joining the starting lineup for the Spartans with an accompanying uptick in usage. While it is fair to note that he did not have the full-season usage of a star-level player at the college level, Michigan State also reached its highest heights as team when Richardson was at the center of its attack.
Part of Richardson's considerable appeal comes from his 3-point shooting, where he connected on 47 of 114 attempts (41.2 percent) at the college level. His shooting at lower levels was not quite that elite, but Richardson is widely considered a strong shooting prospect, which is something the Hwaks certainly need. However, he is not just a specialist by any means. Richardon made a blistering 69.0 percent on shots at the rim, per BartTorvik, and that is a very strong number for a guard.
In the pre-draft process, teams like the Hawks will almost certainly be monitoring whether Richardson is ready for significant on-ball usage at the NBA level after he played off the ball a lot in East Lansing. He does have an intriguing handle and feel for the game, though, and for a team with Trae Young occupying the point guard position, Atlanta would not need Richardson to reach the individual creation heights that some other teams may be seeking.
On the defensive end, Richardson does not project to be elite given his relatively modest tools. With that said, he does have solid strength for a 19-year-old guard, and Richardson has shown the ability to execute a scheme. Playing major minutes alongside Young could be at least a mild concern if the Hawks were to evaluate Richardson as a shaky defender in the future, but one could easily project Richardson to hold up at least at an average level. It also helps to have Dyson Daniels in Atlanta's pipeline, and Richardson played in a defense-first program at the college level.
All in all, it is certainly possible that Richardson flies off the board before the Hawks pick at No. 13 or No. 14 overall, provided Atlanta is able to secure the pick on lottery night. If he is available, though, Richardson does check a lot of boxes that the Hawks could be interested in, especially when it comes to shooting and secondary creation.