With eight games remaining in the 2024-25 regular season, the Atlanta Hawks are in the heat of a close-fought playoff race. By nature of a successful month of March, the Hawks have already matched their win total (36) from the 2023-24 campaign, but Atlanta is in a back-and-forth battle with the Orlando Magic with peripheral races against the likes of the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls, and even the Milwaukee Bucks.
In this space, we will explore the overall tiebreaker landscape for the Hawks. With the advent of the NBA Play-In Tournament, these tiebreaker scenarios perhaps do not bring the same level of weight, simply because ultimate playoff positioning for teams in the 7-10 range of the Eastern Conference will be decided in "extra" games on the court. Still, it is a massive advantage to be in the No. 7 spot with the potential for two home games, should the team need them, to advance to the eight-team playoffs.
This year, there is also a wrinkle that the No. 7 seed is very likely to also earn the Southeast Division title, and that brings at least a small bit of extra emphasis. Of note, the Hawks have already clinched at least a spot in the postseason, as they cannot fall beyond the No. 10 seed no matter the results of the final eight games. Atlanta is aiming higher, though, and to begin this exercise, let's dig into the raw data of what the tiebreakers look like.
Overall tiebreaker scenarios
In the event of a two-team tie after 82 games, the following tiebreaker rules would apply:
- Head-to-head record
- Division winner
- Higher winning percentage in Southeast Division games (applies if both teams are in Southeast)
- Higher winning percentage in Eastern Conference games
- Higher winning percentage against Eastern Conference playoff teams
- Higher winning percentage against Western Conference playoff teams
- Higher point differential
In the event of a two-team tie after 82 games, the following tiebreaker rules would apply:
- Division winner (regardless if teams are in same division)
- Best head-to-head winning percentage among all teams tied
- Highest winning percentage in division games (if teams are in the same division)
- Highests winning percentage in Eastern Conference games
- Higher winning percentage against Eastern Conference playoff teams
- Highest point differential
From there, let's glance at the current scenarios against teams that could plausibly tie with the Hawks in the standings.
Orlando Magic
- Season series is tied 1-1 with two games remaining
- Hawks 9-5 against Southeast, Magic 10-3 against Southeast
- Hawks 27-20 against East, Magic 27-20 against East
Chicago Bulls
- Season series tied at 2-2
- Hawks and Bulls are in different divisions, ATL has chance to win Southeast, CHI eliminated from Central
- Hawks 27-20 against East, Bulls 23-23 against East
Miami Heat
- Season series tied at 2-2
- Hawks 9-5 against Southeast, Heat 10-5 against Southeast
- Hawks 27-20 against East, Heat 22-25 against East
Milwaukee Bucks
While the other scenarios referenced above would involve Play-In positioning, the Hawks are still technically alive in the race for the No. 6 seed and the ability to avoid the Play-In altogether. That was magnified when the Hawks beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday in Milwaukee.
Unlike the other races, the tiebreaker between the Hawks and Bucks has a simple solution. Atlanta beat Milwaukee in the season series, winning three of five games. Normally, NBA teams do not face off five times in a season, but the Hawks and Bucks met in the NBA Cup Semifinal, creating a scenario where the season series could not be tied.
In short, the Hawks would own the two-team tiebreaker over the Bucks if it comes down to that.