Bengals playoff scenarios: How win or loss vs. Browns in Week 16 affects chances

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has quietly thrown for a league-high 3,977 passing yards and 36 passing touchdowns. All-Pro wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase is on pace for the rare receiving triple-crown, as he currently leads the league in receptions (102), receiving yards (1,413) and receiving touchdowns (15). 

Along with wide receiver Tee Higgins and the emergence of running back Chase Brown, the Bengals have fielded one of the league’s most potent offensive attacks. Yet, all of those statistics have led to just six wins. The Bengals have the second-worst scoring defense in the league, and that unit has largely been responsible for the team’s eight losses. Cincinnati dug themselves into a hole with poor performances early in the regular season, but they still have a sliver of hope to make the playoffs.

Since the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are currently locked in a race for the AFC North title, Cincinnati’s only hope to make the playoffs is through an AFC Wild Card spot. 

Bengals path to playoffs is unlikely, but not impossible

The Bengals currently have an eight percent playoff probability, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That slim chance would disappear entirely if the Bengals lose another game. In other words, the playoffs have already begun in Cincinnati.

First, the Bengals have to take care of business against the Cleveland Browns at home on Sunday. Although they defeated the Browns 21-14 in Week 7, divisional matchups are never easy. Still, the Browns are a three-win team and they’ve been reeling.

Cincinnati’s hope to make the postseason was aided by the Los Angeles Chargers’ victory over the Denver Broncos on Thursday night, but they’ll need help from a few other teams if they want to make the playoffs. The Broncos currently hold the lead for the AFC’s final Wild Card seed, but the Bengals could potentially chase them down over the final three weeks of the regular season.

Cincinnati could secure the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver with a win in Week 17. If they can manage to do that, they’d need the Broncos to lose the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 to surpass them in the standings. Cincinnati also needs the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins to lose one of their final three games. The Dolphins will host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, while the Colts will host the Tennessee Titans.

The Bengals are likely in their last season with the tandem of Chase and Higgins, and they would prefer for their time together to end in a Super Bowl championship. The chances of that may be slim, but they’re not dead yet.