We took a couple of days off to start the week, but we’re back with two plays for an interesting MLB slate. For the first, we’re going back to Josh Naylor of the Arizona Diamondbacks against the Seattle Mariners, who we targeted a few weeks ago. For our second play, we’re going to the later part of the slate to find Ryan O’Hearn of the Baltimore Orioles for his matchup with the Detroit Tigers.
We got a split our last time out, but it still resulted in some profit. Kyle Schwarber was playing some decent baseball, but he’s been in a brutal stretch over the last five games. During that stretch, he has just one hit, which was a solo home run on Saturday, over 22 plate appearances, and he’s struck out nine times in 18 at-bats. In the Jeremy Pena world, he took care of us early. In his first two plate appearances, he hit singles on the first two pitches that he saw in the game.
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- Josh Naylor O0.5 RBIs (+155) - .75 Units (FanDuel)
- Ryan O’Hearn O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) - 1 Unit (Caesar’s)
Josh Naylor O0.5 RBIs (+155) FanDuel
Naylor couldn’t come through for us last time out, but I like this spot for him to make up for that one. Over the last week, Naylor is batting .304 with eight runs batted in while only hitting one home run. This season, Josh Naylor has been thriving against RHP. He’s batting .326 with a .523 slugging percentage, while those numbers drop to .234 and .338 against LHP. Of his eight home runs, seven of them have come against righties, and he’s also driven in 30 of his 45 runs against them.
The Mariners are sending righty Bryan Woo to the mound for today’s series finale. Woo has pitched well this season, but he’s been knocked around a bit in his last few starts. He’s allowed 25 hits, including five home runs, over his last four starts. For his career, Woo has been strong against RHB, holding them to a .195 batting average and a .289 slugging percentage. However, lefties have seen some decent success against him with a .242 average and .429 slugging percentage on a nearly identical number of plate appearances. Naylor himself is 1-for-2 against Woo, and the four hitters, including the nine-hole hitter, in front of Naylor are all lefties with a combined history of 4-for-10 against Woo.
Ryan O’Hearn O1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) Caesar’s
For our second play, we’re heading back to the hits + runs + RBIs market for O’Hearn. Over the last week, O’Hearn has been struggling a bit with just a total of four of these stats over his last five games. Despite that, I still like the spot we’re getting tonight. He’s still batting .323 with a .535 slugging percentage against RHP this season, and, despite his recent struggles, he’s still carrying a .319 average and .426 slugging percentage over the last 28 days. Now, he gets a matchup that he has thrived in in the past to try and bounce back.
The Tigers are sending right-hander Casey Mize to the bump for today’s contest. Mize has been strong this season with a 2.91 ERA through 10 starts, but he has slipped a bit over his last few starts. Over his last three starts, he’s allowed 18 hits over 13 innings of work while allowing seven runs in that stretch. In his career against Mize, O’Hearn is 6-for-11 with two home runs, and, while Mize has been decent against lefties this season, he’s been tagged by them throughout his career, with 31 of his 51 home runs allowed being hit by lefties despite them having 26 fewer plate appearances. I like tonight for O’Hearn to knock the rust off that he’s been dealing with.
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