We took a couple of days off to start the week, but we’re going to work with two plays for today’s MLB slate. For the first, we’re going back to the Atlanta Braves with Austin Riley getting the nod against the Arizona Diamondbacks. For our second play, we’re staying in the southeast, where we’ll find Jonathan Aranda of the Tampa Bay Rays in their game with the Texas Rangers.
We got off the mat our last time out with the split, and we walked away with a little bit of green. In the Matt Olson world, the Braves scored just one run in the game, but it came in the first inning when Olson slapped a single to right field. In the Jose Ramirez world, he was one of the many Guardians who couldn’t get into a rhythm at the plate. The team totaled just six hits in the game, and two of them came from Nolan Jones in the nine hole.
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- Austin Riley O0.5 RBIs (+155) - .75 Units BetMGM
- Jonathan Aranda O1.5 Bases (+135) - 1 Unit FanDuel
Austin Riley O0.5 RBIs (+155) BetMGM
We’re targeting Riley for our first play of the day. He’s been seeing the ball well as of late with a .304 average over the last week. He’s also driven in five runs over his previous five games. Throughout his career, he’s been relatively even against both RHP and LHP, and he’s favored RHP so far this year. He’s batting .280 with a .457 slugging percentage against righties, while those numbers drop to .259 and .389 against lefties. Additionally, of his 33 RBIs, 28 of them have come against righties.
Tonight, Riley and the Braves are matching up with Merrill Kelly. Against Kelly, the Braves’ roster is just 16-for-76 for a batting average of .211. However, their expected batting average is .261, and Riley himself is 4-for-12 with three of those four hits going for extra bases. While Matt Olson has had his struggles against Kelly, Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuna, two of the hitters in front of Riley, are 6-for-13 against him in their careers. Kelly has been about even against lefties and righties this season, but lefties are slightly ahead. However, when you look at career numbers, righties get a bump in average slugging percentage and OPS. I like Riley’s chances in this one.
Jonathan Aranda O1.5 Bases (+135) FanDuel
We’re taking a look at Aranda for the second time this season. He gave us a win last time, and he’s in a good spot to give us another win. Over the last week, he’s batting .471 over 17 plate appearances, and he’s been thriving against RHP this season. He’s batting .336 with a .557 slugging percentage against them while those numbers drop to .282 and .333 against LHP. Specifically, he’s seen great success against sliders, four-seam fastballs and sinkers from righties.
It just so happens that the Rangers are sending right-hander Kumar Rocker to the mound for today’s game, and Rocker’s three main pitches against lefties are sinkers, sliders and four-seam fastballs. Additionally, when he’s thrown those pitches, they have gotten hammered. LHB are batting .432 with a .659 slugging percentage against him this season while RHB are hitting just .250 with a .409 slug. This is a great spot for Aranda in a matchup where he is 1-for-2 in their previous meetings.
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