Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios for Week 13: What happens if BYU and Colorado lose?

Maybe it's par for the course but no conference title race has the potential to be as chaotic as the Big 12 Championship Game race down the stretch of the 2024 college football season. Hell, it's already been wild. For much of the season, it appeared that the BYU Cougars and Iowa State Cyclones, both of which started undefeated, might run away with it.

As we've moved on, though, both the Colorado Buffaloes and Arizona State Sun Devils have inserted themselves in the conversation, especially with BYU and Iowa State tripping up. And that led us into Week 13 with even more potential chaos on the line.

On the heels of their first loss of the season in Week 12 to Kansas, BYU then had to go on the road to Tempe to face the red-hot Sun Devils. But adding to that drama was Colorado then having to face that same Jayhawks team on the road at Arrowhead Stadium after Kansas knocked off Iowa State and BYU in back-to-back weeks.

So what could transpire in the Big 12 Championship race with BYU and Colorado losses? Let's unpack the crowded conference championship picture.

Big 12 Championship game scenarios if BYU loses to Arizona State

The worst-case scenario for BYU would be a loss to Arizona State and then a Colorado win over Kansas. That would leave the Buffaloes as the only one-loss team in the Big 12 entering the final week of the regular season while the Sun Devils would then own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cougars.

Subsequently, a BYU loss in Week 13 would require either Colorado losing at home to Oklahoma State or Arizona State losing on the road against rival Arizona — and BYU winning in Provo against Houston — in the final week of the regular season to make the Big 12 Championship Game.

Big 12 Championship game scenarios if Colorado loses to Kansas

If Colorado were to fall to Kansas and BYU were to win on the road at Arizona State, it would actually not be all that bad for the Buffaloes. It would still leave Deion Sanders' team in possession of second place in the Big 12 standings with a tiebreaker over Iowa State based on their record against common opponents.

The only precarious position that would put the Buffs in, however, would be for the last week of the regular season. Even if Colorado was to win in the season finale against Oklahoma State, if BYU were to follow that by losing to Houston in their own season finale and Iowa State won Farmageddon over Kansas State, that would leave the Buffs out of the Big 12 Championship Game in favor of the Cyclones. However, if BYU were to win the finale, Colorado would be safely into the title bout.

Big 12 Championship game scenarios if both BYU and Colorado lose

Things could get real hairy for both BYU and Colorado if they both lose in Week 13. Entering the final week of the regular season, it would actually be Arizona State and Iowa State atop the Big 12 standings. And if projected favorites were to win in Week 14, including BYU, Colorado and Iowa State, that would leave the standings that way for with ASU vs. ISU for the title and a CFP berth.

Meanwhile, if Iowa State were to lose Famageddon next week to Kansas State, that would put BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game against Arizona State in a rematch. For Colorado, the Buffaloes would need both Iowa State and BYU to lose to be the ones facing the Sun Devils.

If Arizona State were to lose in Week 14, it would leave Colorado needing Iowa State or BYU to lose still to make the title game.