The Big 12 saw its 2024-25 season play out entirely different than expected. The team picked to finish dead last in the preseason media poll wound up lifting the conference trophy, and it wasn't even in the top two of the league standings until the final week of the regular season.
Arizona State and Iowa State punched tickets to Arlington, Texas for the right to effectively play-in to the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, supplanting Colorado and BYU who were projected to be the representatives up until the final week.
Now heading into the summer leading up to the 2025-26 season, expectations have shifted substantially. Those who were considered in a rebuild are instead now championship contenders, and vice versa. Here's how I see things winding up as we approach August.
16. UCF Knights
This season is going to be a complete reset for head coach Scott Frost in his return to Orlando. The Knights finished 4-8 (2-7) in their second year as members of a power conference, a step back from their debut. The program lost a significant number of players to the transfer portal and will need the upcoming year to allow Frost to transition back into his new old home.
15. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Head coach Mike Gundy celebrated his 20th anniversary in Stillwater with a winless Big 12 season. Regardless of which quarterback emerges from the offseason battle out of Zane Flores or Hauss Hejny, Oklahoma State will have a Week 1 starter who has a grand total of zero passes in college football. Crazier turnarounds have happened but don't expect it from the Cowboys this year.
14. Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats were considered a title favorite in 2024 before crashing and burning under new head coach Brent Brennan. QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan disappointed but with the latter heading to the NFL, Fifita will have to recover his 2023 form to avoid another subpar season. That'll be easier said than done considering nearly 40 players departed Tucson for the transfer portal.
13. West Virginia Mountaineers
Rich Rodriguez's triumphant return to Morgantown will likely have a very short honeymoon period. The roster he's built will be made up of a significant amount of JUCO transfers with chips on their shoulders, which could still be a hidden advantage. Though given the strength of the rest of the conference, that's not going to matter much for now.
12. Houston Cougars
Head coach Willie Fritz loves year two of his tenure with a program. Texas A&M transfer QB Connor Weigman adds an immediate boost to that side of the roster but the defense still needs work. There's a significant chance the Cougars will win more than four games in 2025 but whether that means they reach bowl eligibility is a whole different question.
11. Cincinnati Bearcats
If it weren't for injuries last season, the Bearcats could've given more teams a run for their money. The program added 16 players in the transfer portal while only losing 15, giving QB Brendan Sorsby an opportunity to rebound from his poor form in 2024. Fans shouldn't expect Cincinnati to be competing for the conference title but it could certainly be a spoiler candidate.
10. Colorado Buffaloes
Head coach Deion Sanders will be under a microscope in 2025. He doesn't have his son Shedeur or Heisman Trophy-winner Travis Hunter to keep the positive coverage spotlight on Boulder, so every misstep will be amplified. Anything less than a Big 12 Conference Championship Game appearance could be the beginning of the end for the Prime Time era at Colorado.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas played spoiler for multiple contenders last year despite being considered one itself at the start of the year. QB Jalon Daniels decided to return to Lawrence and that makes the Jayhawks a still dangerous squad to contend with. Despite not having as strong of a supporting cast around him, head coach Lance Leipold's motivational nature could rally the program enough to keep it from getting worse than last season.
8. Utah Utes
Head coach Kyle Whittingham will be beginning a brand new era of Utah football this year. QB Cam Rising decided to retire from the sport and now, despite his absences last year, the team will have to get used to a new full time starter. That makes the Utes one of the most unpredictable squads in the game. With Whittingham potentially entering one of his last, if not his final, season at the helm, this team could be the most dangerous to play against as well.
7. TCU Horned Frogs
The 2024 season was not as optimal as it could have been for the Horned Frogs. Lofty expectations resulted in a fifth place finish but 2025 could be a lot different for head coach Sonny Dykes. QB Josh Hoover's over 3,000-yard season offers much promise and could be the key to unlocking a shock chase for the conference title of their own.
6. Baylor Bears
Baylor won six straight games after starting 2-4 last year, meaning the Bears have it in them to contend. Their offense is solid with QB Sawyer Robertson and wideout Josh Cameron leading the way but head coach Dave Aranda will need them to be or its his job that's on the line. Nothing motivates a team more than potential regime change... and of course championships. Nobody's saying Baylor is a championship contender yet but they've certainly got the roster to turn some heads.
5. Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones came one win short of winning their first-ever Big 12 Championship in 2024 but even then it was a massive success of a season. QB Rocco Becht is back for another run with head coach Matt Campbell and that duo cannot be ignored. The team's only weakness is it's defensive front, which got a makeover in the transfer portal. If that ends up being a good investment then Iowa State could be back in the title game in December.
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
A seventh-place finish in 2024 was not entirely indicative of how good Texas Tech actually was. The Red Raiders will return a significant amount of its roster but QB Behren Morton's shoulder surgery could be of significant concern. The transfer portal was very kind to head coach Joey McGuire which may have bought his team more margin for error while chasing a conference championship.
3. BYU Cougars
If it weren't for two consecutive stumbles in as many weeks at the end of the regular season, the Cougars could've been the ones representing the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff. Alas, it wasn't to be but that doesn't mean it can't be this year. BYU returns enough of its roster that it'll remain a serious threat at the top of the conference but keep an eye on QB Jake Retzlaff and his civil sexual assault case. If that doesn't go well then the Cougars could sink down this list quickly without his talents.
2. Kansas State Wildcats
QB Avery Johnson didn't impress as much as many thought last year but there's always room for improvement. The Wildcats added a significant amount of new talent in the transfer portal which will only benefit them this year. If Johnson has a rebound season, the rest of the Big 12 could be in serious trouble.
1. Arizona State Sun Devils
The defending champions look poised to repeat if they somehow play any better than they did last year. As improbable as their run was, the Sun Devils still have one glaring question mark to address. How do they replace RB Cam Skattebo? QB Sam Leavitt has found himself on many Heisman watchlists already but head coach Kenny Dillingham better hope his recruiting prowess in the transfer portal will fill the Skattebo sized hole in the offense.