Big Ten Championship Game scenarios for Week 14: What happens if Ohio State loses?

Heading into rivalry week, we know that the 11-0 Oregon Ducks have punched their ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. They could lose to the Washington Huskies in Week 14 and will be in anyway. What we do not know is who they will face in Indianapolis. It may be one of three one-loss teams in the Big Ten between the Ohio State Buckeyes, Penn State Nittany Lions or Indiana Hoosiers.

Ohio State's lone loss was to Oregon. Indiana and Penn State's lone losses were to Ohio State. Simply put, if Ohio State beats Michigan, the Buckeyes will be going to Indianapolis to face the Ducks in a rematch from earlier in the regular season. Conversely, what happens if Ohio State does the unthinkable and loses to Michigan for the fourth time in a row. Who would be going to Indianapolis?

Here is what needs to happen for Ohio State, Penn State or Indiana to be the team going to Indy.

Big Ten Championship Game scenarios for Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana in Week 14

• Ohio State Buckeyes: Win over Michigan OR Indiana loss to Purdue AND Penn State loss to Maryland.
• Penn State Nittany Lions: Win over Maryland AND Ohio State loss to Michigan.
• Indiana Hoosiers: Win over Purdue AND Ohio State loss to Michigan AND Penn State loss to Maryland.

The only way Ohio State could get to Indianapolis after a loss to Michigan would be if Indiana somehow lost to Purdue and if Penn State somehow lost to Maryland. The Boilermakers and Terrapins have a combined five wins on the year between them. They are far easier adversaries than what the Buckeyes will be going up against in the Wolverines. So if not Ohio State, then who will it be?

Penn State would be the next most likely team to go based on the Big Ten tie-breaking procedures.

From the looks of it, Ohio State is not going to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game with a loss to Michigan. This is because the chances of Penn State and Indiana both losing during rivalry week feels like a mathematical improbability, based on how good the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers are when compared to how bad the Terrapins and Boilermakers have been this year. I will take is a step further...

I would say Ohio State has a 90-percent chance or better of beating Michigan, Penn State has a 95-percent chance to beat Maryland, and Indiana has a 97.5-percent chance of beating Purdue. All three are heavy favorites. Because it would require two heavily favored teams to lose, Indiana feels like it has less than a one-percent chance of getting to Indy. Let's say Penn State has a 10-percent chance.

Overall, the Big Ten is in a fantastic spot to get four of its teams into the College Football Playoff. ESPN's Football Power Index has all four Big Ten schools with better than a 97.5-percent chance of getting in. Oregon is maybe only out with a Washington loss and Big Ten title bout loss. Ohio State would be close with a Michigan loss. Penn State and Indiana are out with a second loss on the year.

Oregon will probably face Ohio State, but if Ohio State loses, it will probably be Penn State instead.