Every year around this time, ESPN's Bill Connelly puts out one of my favorite series of articles across all of college football. He did the math so you do not have to. Connelly took the time to rank all 136 FBS teams, including Delaware and Missouri State who are making the move up this season, based on their returning production from last year. The metrics are not everything, but they are something.
I took a deep dive into what this means for my conference yesterday. The SEC data showed me why I just cannot quit Vanderbilt, and why this could be a year of extraordinary things for the likes of Auburn, Florida and Texas A&M. While Georgia and Texas lacking returning talent means very little to me, it may suggest that I am far too bullish on Tennessee, as well as confirming my Ole Miss beliefs.
So here is how the Big Ten stands entering spring practice based on what they all have coming back.
Big Ten ranking | Big Ten team | Overall ranking | Returning production | Offensive ranking | Defensive ranking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Illinois Fighting Illini | 3 | 76 percent | 78 percent (5th) | 75 percent (8th) |
2 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 7 | 71 percent | 80 percent (2nd) | 62 percent (38 percent) |
3 | Wisconsin Badgers | 25 | 64 percent | 67 percent (34th) | 62 percent (39th) |
4 | Michigan Wolverines | 29 | 64 percent | 63 percent (47th) | 64 percent (28th) |
5 | Michigan State Spartans | 30 | 63 percent | 72 percent (17th) | 55 percent (64th) |
6 | Penn State Nittany Lions | 33 | 63 percent | 72 percent (14th) | 53 percent (73rd) |
7 | Minnesota Golden Gophers | 40 | 62 percent | 50 percent (83rd) | 73 percent (11th) |
8 | Indiana Hoosiers | 44 | 61 percent | 61 percent (55th) | 60 percent (45th) |
9 | Nebraska Cornhuskers | 50 | 60 percent | 68 percent (30th) | 53 percent (74th) |
10 | Northwestern Wildcats | 57 | 58 percent | 54 percent (76th) | 62 percent (35th) |
11 | Iowa Hawkeyes | 65 | 57 percent | 67 percent (35th) | 48 percent (95th) |
12 | Washington Huskies | 84 | 52 percent | 48 percent (91st) | 55 percent (65th) |
13 | Maryland Terrapins | 85 | 51 percent | 48 percent (89th) | 54 percent (71st) |
14 | USC Trojans | 97 | 46 percent | 50 percent (85th) | 43 percent (108th) |
15 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 101 | 46 percent | 47 percent (92nd) | 45 percent (103rd) |
16 | Oregon Ducks | 109 | 43 percent | 41 percent (109th) | 46 percent (101st) |
17 | UCLA Bruins | 111 | 43 percent | 53 percent (78th) | 33 percent (124th) |
18 | Purdue Boilermakers | 127 | 32 percent | 27 percent (130th) | 37 percent (118th) |
Right of the bat, Illinois and Rutgers jump off the charts with the third and seventh most returning talent across the board, respectively. Illinois ranks inside the top 10 in both offensive and defensive metrics. This is a team everyone is raving about, so that comes as no surprise. Rutgers returning 80 percent of its offensive production is staggering. On the contrary, look at how bad Purdue may be...
I will now look at all 18 Big Ten teams and put them into six groups of three based on how I feel now.
Big Ten power rankings: What teams are returning the most production?
If I split it right down the middle with Nebraska or better at the top (60 percent) and Northwestern or worse at the bottom (58 percent), I feel like I can break this wide open. In addition to Illinois at No. 3, I would say Michigan at No. 29 and Michigan State at No. 30 matter the most in the positive. Illinois and Michigan can vie for the College Football Playoff, while Michigan State's rebuild may be ending soon.
My next group of teams where it matters some for having good returning production marks include Rutgers, Penn State and Indiana. For Rutgers, the Scarlet Knights may have a good enough offense to be a giant killer in the Big Ten. Penn State being in the top half of the league gives them a real shot at winning a national title. Indiana returning more than I expected indicates this might not be a one-off.
As far as Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska being in the top half of the Big Ten, none of them really do much for me. I do not trust Luke Fickell. Whenever you expect Minnesota to be good, the Golden Gophers disappoint. Nebraska needs to focus on keeping it real. Being in the top half could be seen as a slight positive, but I like many teams returning far less a whole lot more than I do those teams.
Moving to the bottom half of the Big Ten when it comes to returning talent, it goes without saying Purdue is in an awful spot under new head coach Barry Odom. I would also argue the Northwestern being slightly below league average is a problem. Anytime the Wildcats are good, they are led by a senior-laden team. I would add USC being in the bottom half is not what Lincoln Riley wants at all.
As far as where being in the bottom half matters some, I would group Oregon, UCLA and Maryland in that trio of teams. Oregon may not be able to reach the heights of last year. UCLA not returning a bunch of production has me wondering if DeShaun Foster is going to take leading his alma mater. With regards to Maryland, this feels like it will be the last year Mike Locksley leads a Power Four team.
And where being in the bottom half of the Big Ten in terms of returning production truly does not matter reside Ohio State, Iowa and Washington. The Buckeyes are essentially a playoff lock at this point. Iowa and Washington could be better than they were last year, but nobody is really expected the Hawkeyes or Huskies to reinvent the wheel here. They just feel like middle-of-the-pack teams.
All in all, returning production is great for Illinois, awful Purdue and somewhere in between for others.