Which teams do Bills beat out via tiebreakers for the NFL Playoffs?

The Bills are in great shape heading down the stretch of this 2024 NFL season but need the Chiefs to lose at least one more game.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
facebooktwitterreddit

In upping their winning streak to seven this past Sunday night with an impressive 35-10 victory over the San Francisco 49ers, the Buffalo Bills improved to 10-2 on the year locked up the AFC East for the fifth consecutive season.

As such, of course, Sean McDermott's squad is guaranteed one of the top four seeds in the AFC, meaning the only tiebreakers with which the Bills will need to concern themselves are those involving the other three division winners.

If the NFL Playoffs began tomorrow, those three teams would be the AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs (11-1), the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3), and the AFC South-leading Houston Texans (8-5).

A few other teams are still in the mix for division titles, but these three are the ones Buffalo needs to worry about most at this point. With that in mind, let's have a look at the advantages (or disadvantages) the Bills have as it pertains to tiebreakers.

Tiebreaker scenarios for the Buffalo Bills

Naturally, we'll kick things off with the biggest advantage Buffalo has heading into the final five weeks of the regular season.

Kansas City Chiefs

If Buffalo and Kansas City end the season with identical records, the Bills would win the tiebreaker due to their 30-21 victory over the two-time defending Super Bowl champions in Week 11.

The big caveat here, of course, is that the Chiefs still have a one-game advantage over the Bills in terms of overall standing, which obviously means Buffalo will need Kansas City to lose at least one more game down the stretch.

And that's a strong possibility as Kansas City has several challenging games over the final five weeks.

That's certainly not the easiest slate.

From an overall standpoint, the Bills have it far easier, although they do have a trap-game situation looming this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams and then have to face the Detroit Lions in Week 15.

From there, though, it gets a lot less difficult, as Buffalo gets the New England Patriots in Week 16, the New York Jets in Week 17, and then New England again in Week 18.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Bills caught a nice break two weeks back when the Steelers were upset by the Browns on Thursday Night Football. Because had things gone the other way, Pittsburgh, not Buffalo, would currently be the No. 2 seed in the AFC.

As the Bills and Steelers don't play one another this season, the head-to-head tiebreaker obviously isn't applicable.

The second tiebreaker to determine seeding is record within the conference. Both of Buffalo's losses came to AFC opponents, taking defeats in back-to-back weeks to the Baltimore Ravens and the Texans. But before losing to Cleveland, Pittsburgh had just one loss to an AFC team, that coming in Week 4 to the Indianapolis Colts. They lost again the following week to the Dallas Cowboys.

As it stands now, the Bills have the better overall record (10-2 to 9-3) and a better record within the conference (7-2 to 6-2). And as far as remaining AFC opponents go, Buffalo has the advantage there as well.

As mentioned, the Bills have the Patriots, Jets, and the Patriots again to close out the year. Meanwhile, the Steelers still have the Browns, Ravens, Chiefs, and Cincinnati Bengals to play. Plus, Pittsburgh still has an in-state battle looming with the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15. So, there's a strong chance Buffalo won't even need to worry about a tiebreaker with Pittsburgh.

As we're discussing the AFC North here, it needs to be noted that the Ravens are still very much in the division race at 8-5. And the Bills certainly don't want to get into a tiebreaker scenario there, as they took the aforementioned loss to Baltimore back in Week 4.

Houston Texans

Given that the Bills are up three games in the loss column to the Texans with five weeks to go, one wouldn't think there would be much to worry about when it comes to Houston.

However, if things do take a turn, the Bills would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker due to the 23-20 loss they took to C.J. Stroud & Co. in Week 5.

Next. 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Giants bank on Milroe, Cowboys get Jeanty. 2025 NFL Mock Draft: Giants bank on Milroe, Cowboys get Jeanty. dark

manual