Billy Napier does not even have the hottest seat in Florida, according to oddsmakers
By John Buhler
I am not a gambling man, but make it make sense. Las Vegas has some thoughts about what Power Four head coaches are sitting on the hottest seats heading into November. Entering Week 10, only three Group of Five head coaches have been terminated this season, with Mike Bloomgren at Rice being the latest. There are five openings with Fresno State and Utah State both being led by interims.
Whenever I do hot seat watches, I rarely like to put Group of Five coaches on the hot seat. Yes, not all of them are going to make it, but I would rather celebrate that level of FBS college football than make a mockery of it. That said, I do like to put pressure underperforming head coaches in the Power Four. Unfortunately for some, I think it is way too premature to have Billy Napier of Florida on the hot seat.
Las Vegas thinks differently. Here are the Power Four head coaches with the best odds to be fired.
- Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell (+350)
- Purdue Boilermakers head coach Ryan Walters (+425)
- Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier (+500)
- Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Sam Pittman (+700)
- Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda (+750)
- Auburn Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze (+850)
- California Golden Bears head coach Justin Wilcox (+900)
- North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown (+1250)
Of those eight head coaches, I would only put Florida State's Mike Norvell, Purdue's Ryan Walters, Auburn's Hugh Freeze and North Carolina's Mack Brown on the hot seat. In time, Napier, Arkansas' Sam Pittman, Baylor's Dave Aranda and Cal's Justin Wilcox may end up earning their pink slip, but I would fire several Power Four head coaches before them, including unlisted Gus Malzahn at UCF...
Norvell's seat is hotter in Florida than Napier's. I would argue that Malzahn should be feeling it, too.
Billy Napier is not even sitting on the hottest Power Four seat in Florida
Across the board, I would argue that all four Power Four schools located in the State of Florida are not led by elite head coaches. I am going to be nice about Mario Cristobal here, but Miami could drive itself. Norvell is probably the best of the four, but Florida State is the sorriest bag of crap in the Power Four. This was a top-10 team to start the season. Last year's undefeated ACC champion is now 1-7.
Buyouts be damned, Norvell is not helping his team win right now, or in the future on the recruiting trail. As for Malzahn, the UCF Knights are 3-5 and riding a five-game losing streak. His antiquated hurry-up-and-run offensive philosophy has aged like Keith Richards. With BYU and Cincinnati having a far easier time transition from the Group of Five to the Big 12, the Gus Bus may need to leave soon.
As for Napier, what else could he have possibly done this season? Florida is 4-3 with losses to serious playoff contenders in Miami, Texas A&M and Tennessee. Had Florida beaten Tennessee in overtime a few weeks back, we may be arguing for the Gators having a real shot at upsetting Georgia in The Cocktail Party. And that right there is why everybody is lining up to pile drive Napier out of Gainesville.
Florida's final five games are brutally bad. The Gators face Georgia in Jacksonville, Texas in Austin, LSU in Gainesville, Ole Miss in Gainesville and at Florida State in Tallahassee to finish the regular season. If Florida loses to Florida State to finish the year on a five-game skid, maybe Napier does get axed after going 4-8? If the Gators steal one of their first four games to finish 6-6, he may get to stay.
Right now, Florida State and UCF have been the far more disappointing teams in Florida this season.