Blue Jays failed shortcut to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is an unforgivable Ross Atkins mistake

The Toronto Blue Jays are still alive in the chase for Roki Sasaki, but unless the team is able to pull off a miracle, it sure seems like the righty is destined for Southern California. The real priority for Ross Atkins and Co. for the rest of the offseason is simple: Find a way to convince Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to sign a contract extension rather than hit free agency next winter.

And on that front, the news is ... not as promising. The latest update, from TSN Blue Jays reporter Scotty Mitchell, makes it sound like the two sides remain almost as far apart as ever. Toronto appears to be approaching these contract talks like a normal negotiation, in which a team looks for concessions wherever it can in an effort to secure the best possible deal. But in reality, this is very far from a normal negotiation; this is a four-alarm fire, and unless Atkins (and ownership, and president Mark Shapiro) starts treating it as such, they can kiss their foundational star goodbye.

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Ross Atkins, Blue Jays are botching Vladimir Guerrero Jr. talks

Mitchell's update is awfully damning for Toronto. He reports that Guerrero Jr. has already turned down two different contract offers from the Jays, one of which included a substantial amount of deferred money. But beyond that, he paints a picture of a team that fundamentally misunderstands the situation that it's in: According to Mitchell, Toronto still hasn't bumped its offer north of $400 million, and the two sides remain some $100 million apart.

Which, if true, is just one more Atkins mistake to add to the pile when he inevitably finds himself out of a job at this time next year. After whiffing on Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and just about every other big-time free agent target this winter, Guerrero Jr. isn't just the next item on the team's to-do list. He's the only thing: Toronto failed in its attempt to vault itself back into contention with a big offseason, and if it can't reach an agreement with Vladdy, a total rebuild is on the table.

So you'd think that, given the stakes, Atkins and the Jays would be more willing to cut to the chase and get serious with their most important player. But they're still playing the sorts of games that, say, the New York Mets are playing with Pete Alonso right now. The difference is that Alonso doesn't seem to have a better option, and the Mets are in great shape competitively both now and into the future. Guerrero Jr., meanwhile, is potentially a year away from a free agency jackpot, and if he bolts, Toronto will be left with next to nothing to build around moving forward.

The only hope that the Blue Jays have of avoiding that fate is giving Guerrero Jr. an offer he can't refuse. Sure, $400-450 million is a ton, but at this point the time for negotiating has past. Toronto has no more leverage here, and it's time to either give the man what he wants or watch him wave goodbye. The longer that Atkins pretends otherwise, the worse this situation will get.