Blue Jays ray of hope in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension talks is such a reach

The Toronto Blue Jays whiffed on Juan Soto, Blake Snell, Max Fried and more. Last winter, they tried to sign Shohei Ohtani, only to get left stranded at the airport. It hasn't been a good run for Ross Atkins and Co.

The Blue Jays best player, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., is entering a contract year. Vladdy would be far easier to re-sign if the Jays were able to convince a top-tier free agent to join forces with him. That hasn't been easy, and despite the Blue Jays being an on-paper playoff team, they haven't played meaningful baseball in October since 2023.

That hasn't stopped Guerrero Jr.;s production, of course. He is as motivated as ever, playing out the remainder of his contract in search of a big pay day. Last year, Guerrero Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 home runs and a 166 OPS+. If he has a similar campaign in 2025, Guerrero Jr. could earn himself a contract similar to Soto's.

Toronto Blue Jays have ray of hope in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. extension talks

That's a problem for Toronto. While they were fine bidding over $700 million for Soto, that was in addition to having Vladdy under contract. If they spend anything near that on Guerrero Jr. alone, it'll limit their financial flexibility and ability to build a contender around him. Not every owner is Steve Cohen.

An unconfirmed report courtesy of Carlos Baerga suggests Guerrero Jr. turned down an extension before Soto signed with the Mets. That contract offer reportedly exceeded $340 million. True or not, the Blue Jays will have to go higher to keep their best player beyond 2026.

Jays fans do have a glimmer of hope, which is that Guerrero Jr. and the team have only gone to arbitration once. Let Toronto media paint you a word picture:

"Still: the Blue Jays and Guerrero have gone to an arbitration hearing just once. That was last season when there was a $1.85-million difference in the teams offer and Guerrero’s request...So, Guerrero’s agent and the Blue Jays seem to have agreed on his value more often than not and that should have counted for something by now,"Jeff Blair of Sportsnet wrote.

That is adorable. While, yes, it is good news that the Blue Jays and Guerrero Jr. haven't gone to court to settle financial differences, $1.85 million is a lot different than potentially $500 million. As of now, Vladdy's best and most realistic path forward is to let the market decide his value.

That won't be good news for Atkins and the Blue Jays.