Toronto Blue Jays fans had high hopes for Bowden Francis this season after he emerged seemingly out of nowhere down the stretch of the 2024 campaign. Unfortunately, he has struggled mightily to begin the year, and the home run ball has been a huge reason why.
Francis is tied for the major league lead with 14 home runs surrendered in his nine starts. He has given up 14 long balls despite pitching 10 and 13 fewer innings than Zack Littell and Jameson Taillon, the two pitchers he's tied with. Those are the only three pitchers in the majors to give up more than 11 home runs thus far. It's a major issue.
If Francis can't learn to keep the opposition in the yard, his spot in the rotation might be up for grabs sooner rather than later.
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It's getting tough to justify keeping Bowden Francis in the Blue Jays rotation
Last season, Francis gave up a total of 17 home runs in 103.2 innings of work. His 4.2 percent home run rate was well above the league average of around 3.0 percent, but he was still able to post a 3.30 ERA. Well, this season, Francis' home run rate has skyrocketed to 7.0 percent, and his ERA sits at 5.63 after nine starts and 46.1 innings of work. His 6.51 FIP suggests he's lucky to even have his ERA at 5.63.
What's most frustrating is that these home run woes have been consistent with little sign of improvement. He's given up at least one home run in all but two of his outings, and has given up as many as five in a single start. Unsurprisingly, the Blue Jays have gone just 3-6 when he's taken the ball.
No play in baseball alters momentum more than a home run. Home runs can and often do win or lose teams games. The Jays don't hit many, but they give up a ton, and Francis is the biggest culprit of that. The fact that they've allowed 26 more home runs than they've hit is a big reason why they're currently under .500.
At this point, it's getting tougher to justify keeping Francis in the rotation. The home run rate is alarming, and he has failed to complete five innings in four of his last five starts. Yes, he was great last year, but how long do the Jays ride this out based on last year?
Perhaps what's keeping him in the rotation this long is the lack of starting pitching depth this organization has. Well, once Max Scherzer comes back from the IL and once Spencer Turnbull is ready to roll, the Jays might finally have a reason to demote Francis to the bullpen or even the minor leagues if he doesn't improve.