Somehow, we have just two weeks left in the PGA Tour season, meaning that we head to the 2025 BMW Championship this week for the middle event in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. For the rotating venue at the BMW Championship, that mean's we're heading back to Caves Valley in Maryland this week, which last hosted the event back in 2021, a tournament won by Patrick Cantlay. But the course has undergone some changes that should make it a fascinating week on the PGA Tour, and help to inform our expert picks.
Caves Valley has been lengthened to more than 7,600 yards for the BMW Championship, making it the third-longest PGA Tour venue we'll have seen since 2015. Furthermore, the longer course will also play as a Par-70 now as opposed to the Par-72 we saw back in 2021. That likely means we won't see a 27-under winning score again, but make no mistake, the birdies are still going to come in bunches.
But with the long setup on deck this week and the need for scoring, we're targeting long-hitting ball-strikers who know how to fill it up... in addition to looks at just some of the best in the world in the 49-player field this week. With that, let's get fully into our 2025 BMW Championship expert picks, starting with our outrights and more for the week.
Golf betting record in 2025: 28-132-0, +9.685 Units (-1.5 Units last 3 weeks) | One and Done Total for 2025: $13,667,159 (Matt Fitzpatrick at St. Jude, $111,167)
Note: All lines are courtesy of BetMGM. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BMW Championship picks: Outrights, Top 10 and One and Done selections
As always, we have our outrights coming from the weekly breakdown from yours truly on SI Golf, and we're going with two studs and one semi sleeper this week, which means we have a lot of investment off the jump when it comes to this group.
- Rory McIlroy +800 (FanDuel), 2 Units
- Ludvig Åberg +2200 (DraftKings), 0.7 Units
- Kurt Kitayama +4500 (BetMGM), 0.3 Units
Rory has a stellar history on Tom Fazio designs and at the BMW, and his length should play well this week. Åberg is trending big time, particularly with his approach play, and his driver will be a weapon this week. And if Kitayama's putting isn't an abject disaster, his ball-striking is elite enough right now to push him into contention.
Top 10 pick for the BMW Championship: Patrick Cantlay +150
The BMW master himself and, more importantly, the winner back in 2021 at Caves Valley, there are some nice trends with Patrick Cantlay right now. He's 12th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds and in the top-fourth of the field in driving distance as well. I still have my concerns with a shaky putter, but it has shown signs of improvement. That's why he's not an outright, though. For him to come back and keep making more birdies where he dominated a few years ago as he rounds back into form, I love Cantlay to get inside the top-fifth of the field this week.
One and Done pick for the BMW Championship: Ludvig Åberg
Two events left, time to burn the couple of big names I've been saving, starting with Åberg. He's quietly climbed to 11th in SG: Approach in the last 24 rounds and his driving is not only fifth in distance, but he's the most accurate driver statistically among the top players in that category. With his bentgrass putting also shining, he's my favorite of the outright picks this week, so we're rolling with him in One and Done as well.
More BMW Championship expert picks and best bets
Scottie Scheffler to finish Top 5, Rory McIlroy to finish Top 10 +120 (FanDuel)
For those keeping track at home, this is in the including ties market on FanDuel.
Speaking of the elite players in this field, I love how McIlroy's game is trending after locking back in for the late-summer run. Even better, he's the only guy coming off a week away from Memphis after skipping. He's also been Top 10 in three of the last four BMW Championships, including at Caves Valley. Throw in Scheffler, who feels like a near-auto Top 5 at this point with his ball-striking, and this is a cheeky little parlay to try and raise our floor this week with our picks.
Viktor Hovland to finish Round 1 inside the Top 10 +250
The volatility of Viktor Hovland hurt me last week, but I'm going to lean into it again. His approach play overall is still elite, ranking fourth in strokes-gained over the last 24 rounds, while also being Top 6 in the two key proximity ranges this week. He's also another guy who has thrived on Fazio designs as well. I don't know if he's quite ready to put four elite rounds together to win, but he's more than good enough right now to get red-hot, so taking him for just a Top 10 in one round makes a lot of sense to me to try and play into the state of his game overall.