Bracketology: Arkansas vibe check for John Calipari with crucial stretch upcoming

Just when it seemed like John Calipari's first season with the Arkansas Razorbacks was set to spiral out of control, with a 1-6 start in SEC play and star guard Boogie Fland lost for the season with a hand injury, the Hogs have found new life. Wednesday's home win over LSU was Arkansas' fourth in its last six games, a stretch that includes a huge win over Kentucky at Rupp Arena, wins over fellow bubble teams Georgia and Texas and a near-upset of No. 2 Alabama last weekend.

Suddenly, Coach Cal has his team playing like the group we thought we'd see at the start of the season, with FAU transfer Johnell Davis and former Kentucky big Zvonimir Ivisic blossoming in Fland's absence. But for as good as things are going right now, the reality of the early-season hole Arkansas dug itself is that there's simply not all that much margin for error when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament.

The Hogs have stopped the bleeding and given themselves a chance, landing among Joe Lunardi's last four teams into the Big Dance in ESPN's most recent Bracketology update. But now the real work begins — starting with a rugged three-game stretch that could well define their season.

Arkansas Bracketology: Tough three-game stretch could make or break Razorbacks' NCAA Tournament hopes

There are no easy roads in the SEC, and Arkansas is no different. The Razorbacks are set to face three straight ranked opponents over their next three games, starting on Saturday with a trip to face rival Texas A&M in College Station. Another road game, this time against current No. 1 Auburn, follows on Wednesday, and then the Hogs will head back home to face another rival in Missouri at Bud Walton Arena. That's a gauntlet, to say the least, and how Calipari and his team handle it may make or break their tourney hopes.

Arkansas' NET ranking sits squarely on the bubble at 41, and a weak non-conference slate — with a neutral-court win over Michigan but losses to Illinois and Baylor in the only two other notable games — doesn't do them very many favors. Nor does a 4-9 combined record in Quad 1 and 2 games. The simple fact is that the Razorbacks could really, really use at least one win (and preferably multiple) against a slam-dunk tournament team to stamp their case before the SEC Tournament even begins next month.

And this stretch is by far their best chance to get it, as Arkansas closes its regular season with games against South Carolina, Texas, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Three of those teams should wind up on the right side of the bubble, but none would be Quad 1A wins as things stand. (Heck, of those four, it's possible that only one of them winds up a Quad 1 game at all, depending on how Mississippi State fares over the next couple of weeks.) The Razorbacks certainly don't have to sweep the next three; really, they don't even need to win two of them. But they better get at least one, because if they don't, the resume could start to look awfully thin come Selection Sunday.

The good news is that this current run of form suggests Arkansas is good enough to do just that. A&M has won six of seven, but the Aggies have been playing with fire a bit, and they're prone to struggling on the offensive end. Missouri, meanwhile, has been a far different team away from Columbia this season. Snag one of the next three, take care of business against South Carolina and Texas and split two between Vandy and Mississippi State, and that 4-3 finish gets them to 19-12 overall and 8-10 in conference, with likely at least five Quad 1 wins. Combined with the selection committee's tendency to benefit teams who close strong, it should be enough to get the Razorbacks in.