With conference tournaments in full swing across the country, the Mountain West Tournament will have a lot of say toward which bubble teams make the Big Dance and which ones are left out. New Mexico, Utah State and San Diego State are currently in the NCAA Tournament field while Boise State and Colorado State have work to do as two of the teams in the First Four Out, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi.
That sets a potential race between those programs and power conference teams like North Carolina and Texas, who are currently the other two teams in the First Four Out. For comparison, North Carolina (40) and Texas (42) only trail Utah State (36) in NET ranking while New Mexico (41) is in between. Boise State (45), San Diego State (51) and Colorado State (54) are close behind.
In terms of Quad 1 wins, Texas has the most with five, but each Mountain West team, with the exception of Colorado State, has more Quad 1 wins than North Carolina. New Mexico — the top seed heading into the Mountain West Tournament — has the most Quad 1 wins in the conference with three, plus an additional eight Quad 2 wins.
Being in Power 5 conferences, Texas and North Carolina obviously have more Quad 1 opportunities throughout the season. However, the Longhorns have only went 5-10 in those games while the Tar Heels are 1-11. Those missed opportunities open the door for teams like the five Mountain West programs to get in over them.
How can the Mountain West Tournament pop the bubble for Power 5 programs?
You could argue there could be a scenario where Colorado State and Boise State — both of whom have the most losses in the conference — meet in the Mountain West title game, paving the way for all five programs to potentially get in, especially if teams like North Carolina, Texas, or Last Four In teams Oklahoma, Indiana, Xavier or Ohio State suffer early hiccups in their conference tournaments.
It would not be unprecedented for five Mountain West teams to make the Big Dance after a record six made it a season ago. Other than No. 4 seed San Diego State and No. 5 seed Boise State — who face each other in Thursday's quarterfinals — the three remaining teams have a realistic path to the semifinals. The loser of the San Diego State-Boise State matchup could face an uphill battle, given their current bubble status. For New Mexico, Utah State and Colorado State, avoiding an upset in the quarterfinals could be all they need to make it or at least put themselves in serious consideration.
Yes, the teams they are up against are ahead of them in NET ranking for the most part due to their strength of schedule. However, by not taking advantage of those games and leaving little to no doubt amongst the selection committee, the door has been left open for mid-major programs and smaller schools to have a legitimate shot because of them winning Quad 1 games the few times they have encountered them.
If you combine Quad 1 and 2 wins, you can make the case for each of the five Mountain West programs. All it is going to take is for a couple of those power conference teams around them to suffer early exits from their respective conference tournaments. If that happens and each of the five Mountain West teams play to their potential in their conference tournament, it will be interesting to see if the committed rewards them once again and values quality over quantity. If, however, some upsets take place in the Mountain West Tournament, that could pave the way for teams like North Carolina and Texas to leapfrog them when all is said and done.