It's not often that a mid-major conference in women's college basketball has a shot to get not just two, but potentially three teams into March Madness. In fact, outside of the top five conferences, ESPN's current bracketology forecast predicts just two other conferences will have multiple teams: the Atlantic 10 with two and then the Ivy League with three.
That's right: the Ivies aren't just for academics now! The conference has quietly been the best mid-major conference this season and right now, ESPN predicts Columbia, Princeton and Harvard will all make the NCAA Tournament.
But the Ivy League still has a conference tournament to play, which could shake up all kinds of things. What's at stake in the Ivy League tournament and how will it impact the bubble?
Ivy League tournament will determine fate of multiple teams
ESPN's Charlie Creme currently has Ivy League regular season champion Columbia in the field as an 11 seed, while Princeton and Harvard are the last two teams in the field.
The Ivy League has an interesting structure for its conference tournament as only the top four teams in the conference standings earn a spot. That means the three aforementioned teams and Penn are the only teams positioned to play for the conference's one automatic bid.
That also means that two of those teams — Princeton and Harvard — will play each other in the semifinals in a game that will have major implications.
There's still a chance that both teams make the NCAA Tournament, but a head-to-head matchup of the final two teams projected to make it likely makes that a kind of "loser is out" matchup, barring an insanely close result where both teams look exceptionally good. If, for example, Harvard comes out and beats Princeton by 15 points, the Crimson will not only jump Princeton in the pecking order, but the Tigers are likely going to fall out of the field entirely, replaced by a team like Virginia Tech or potentially by one of the top mid-major programs that lost in its conference tournament like James Madison or UNLV. Bid steals in the Sun Belt and Mountain West make it that much more difficult for the Ivy League to get three teams in.
There's also the possibility that the Ivy League only gets one team. Columbia is no lock either despite winning the regular season crown. An upset loss to Penn in the conference semifinals could send the Lions packing. They would be right in that battle for one of the final at-large spots, but a loss to a Quakers team that went 6-8 in conference play would be a big negative on their resume.
Things could get really weird if Penn wins the conference tournament and earns the conference's at-large bid. If the Quakers beat two bubble teams, would both teams – as well as the loser of Princeton/Harvard — be knocked off the bubble?
It's the most interesting conference tournament in the country this season. With just two rounds, none of these teams has a chance to get any lopsided wins earlier on to build a buffer on the bubble. It all comes down to the results of three basketball games to determine how many spots the Ivy League gets in the tournament and how many opportunities there will be for teams currently outside of ESPN's bracket prediction to move up into the field.