Atlanta Braves fans haven't been treated to nearly enough Spencer Strider this season. The mustachioed flamethrower made just one start after returning from the elbow injury that ended his 2024 season before landing on the IL again with a hamstring. As he's beginning to make his way back, though, the question of who he's going to replace in the rotation has gotten more complicated. What once appeared like a lock to be either AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder getting pushed out might now be the weight Grant Holmes has to bear.
Elder started the season as a weekly headache for Braves fans. He gave up eight earned runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, giving him a 7.20 ERA and leading to the way to two losses in Atlanta's ice-cold start. Smith-Shawver, in more spotty work, looked similarly frustrating, though not quite as bad. He only made it through five innings once in his first three starts, had a 4.61 ERA over that span, and the Braves were just 1-2 in those games.
As for Holmes, his move to the rotation seemed to be a masterstroke by Brian Snitker and Co. to start the year. While his late-March start against the Dodgers went terribly (4 ER across 4.0 innings in a loss), he was overall nails to begin the year. Through four starts and five appearances, he sat with a 2-1 record and a 3.22 ERA.
The tide has flipped for all three pitchers since then, however. And with Strider's looming return, that turning of the tides could leave Holmes as the odd man out, and not just because of his performance. He also has a place to go and still be useful for the Braves this season.
Grant Holmes moving back to bullpen should be Braves answer to Spencer Strider's return
Point blank, Holmes has struggled in his last three starts. Even though he didn't take a loss and the Braves won, he gave up six earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 26, took another loss to the Dodgers in a fine outing (2 ER over 6.0 innings) and then got hit hard by the Reds in a loss on Wednesday, giving up four earned over 5.1 innings. His ERA has ballooned to 4.58 as a result.
On the flipside, Smith-Shawver has really started to turn it around. He went 5.1 innings with two earned runs at Coors Field in a win, then dominated the Reds, allowing one hit and no runs over 8.0 innings on May 5. That ERA is now at 3.00. Elder's ERA still sits at 5.06, but it's trending the right direction as the Braves have won in all of his last four starts and while not giving up more than three runs in any outing. For a bottom-rotation starter, that'll pass every time.
Not only do the recent trends favor Smith-Shawver and Elder staying in the rotation over Holmes, but the deciding factor is Holmes' history and ability to shift to the bullpen. That's where he started the year, pitching in relief on Opening Day, and where he spent the majority of last season. In 2024, he made seven starts — the number he's already made this season — but 26 total appearances and finished with a solid 3.56 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in a multi-inning role.
The Braves bullpen could use that type of arm again and, frankly, we might be seeing that's where Holmes is best served and most helpful to this year's team. Things could change before Strider is ultimately ready to return to the mound. If they hold to this recent pattern, though, Smith-Shawver and Elder might be the ones to stay, even if that looked impossible to be the case early in the year, with Holmes returning to a relief role.