Braves doomsday scenario for Max Fried’s free agency doesn’t involve the Mets

There is a specter in the shape of Max Fried hanging over the Atlanta Braves' offseason. The All-Star pitcher is eligible to sign with the highest bidder. Of course the Braves want him back, but after years of failing to gain traction in contract talks, the outlook is bleak. All signs point to Fried landing with a new team.

That opens an uncomfortable can of worms for the Braves. Not only will Fried's presence be deeply missed in the Atlanta rotation, but there's a good chance he ends up on the wrong end of a Braves rivalry. For example, the pitching-needy New York Mets could dial up Fried and hand him the $175 million ESPN projects. That would place Fried in the division, on a team that just outlasted the Braves in October.

Or what about the San Diego Padres, who just beat Atlanta head-to-head? Or the upstart Washington Nationals? Or, god forbid, and unexpected run from the Philadelphia Phillies. All these outcomes would sting especially bad for Atlanta. It would be one thing for Fried to join the Red Sox or something and toil in American League obscurity. But joining a direct National League threat — that is the nightmare scenario for the Braves.

As for the worst possible outcome, however, we can't even say the Mets. Because, as we look ahead to the postseason, it's clear where Fried absolutely cannot end up. If Fried signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers, that could put a stake through Atlanta's postseason dreams.

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Max Fried signing with Dodgers would be worst possible outcome for Braves

There is simple logic here. The Mets are in Atlanta's division, but winning the division means very little. Ask the Phillies. Ask the Braves. October is a different beast and winning the NL East crown has meant diddly-squat in recent years. The Braves need to be thinking about the postseason, where the Dodgers loom as a far more imposing threat.

Does this calculus change a bit if the Mets drop $1 billion on Juan Soto and a new star apparatus? Perhaps, but even then, the Mets would feel more like an expensive knockoff than a direct challenge to the Dodgers' star-power. Los Angeles mowed through several quality opponents en route to a World Series victory with half its starting rotation on the mend — out of commission! Just imagine the Dodgers with a healthy Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, and Shohei Ohtani, and perhaps a more experienced Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Oh, and Max Fried. Because that's a real possibility.

Fried grew up in LA, where he attended the same high school as Dodgers postseason hero Jack Flaherty. The Dodgers might not be able to swing both Fried and Flaherty, but there's no denying the appeal of returning home to the best team in baseball if you're Fried. Postseason struggles have plagued Fried in recent years, but he's a dominant regular season force with ample playoffs experience under his belt — not to mention a World Series ring. He finished last season with a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 29 starts, earning his second All-Star bid in the process.

The prospect of Fried in Los Angeles levels up a team that is already several levels above the competition. The Braves are aiming for the World Series and profile as arguably the Dodgers' greatest threat at full strength. Losing Fried hurts their chances on its own. Losing Fried to the Dodgers might seal Atlanta's fate before the campaign even begins.

If Fried's days in a Braves uniform are in fact complete, we should all hope it doesn't result in a hometown reunion. Unless he goes to the Angels. That's fine.