Atlanta Braves fans remain frustrated after the team's heartbreaking 2-0 loss against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. The Braves are now 25-28 on the year, and they sit 9.5 games behind Philadelphia in the NL East. Atlanta's subpar offense has been discussed ad nauseam, but the team has another flaw that hasn't garnered nearly enough attention: Their bullpen, particularly late in games, is a problem.
Raisel Iglesias has had a down year, but his track record suggests that eventually he'll be fine. As for the innings before he comes into the game ... well, there's less reason to be optimistic about that. Daysbel Hernandez has been the Braves' primary set-up man of late, and he entered Tuesday's game with a 1.64 ERA, but he showed in this game why he can't be trusted in that high-leverage role.
After retiring the first two batters of the inning, Hernandez allowed four straight base-runners, two of which came via walks. That turned what was a 1-0 game into a 2-0 game. Now, there's no reason to believe that the Braves would've been able to tie the game in the ninth even if the deficit remained one run, but that was still a big earned run Hernandez gave up.
Giving up the run isn't a huge deal, but how he did it, especially given how he's pitched this season, is a big deal — and is something that needs to be addressed.
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Braves need to find a Daysbel Hernandez upgrade sooner rather than later
Hernandez's season ERA was sparkling, but accompanied by that ERA was a 3.66 FIP. That metric isn't everything, but it shows that Hernandez is lucky to have had his ERA be as low as it was, and other statistics prove that as well.
For example, opponents entered Tuesday with a .200 BABIP against. Hernandez has done well to suppress hard contact, but still, that mark is roughly 100 points below the league average. That's lucky.
Giving up some hits here and there might not be the end of the world, but it's a lot worse when Hernandez walks the park. He issued two free passes on Tuesday, and that's after he entered the day with a 16.3 percent walk rate, good for the first percentile according to Baseball Savant. After walking two batters on Tuesday, Hernandez has now issued 16 free passes in 23 innings of work. To put it simply, that is unacceptable.
Once the batted-ball luck he's had corrects itself, the walks will come back to bite him, much like they did in Atlanta's recent loss. This would be less of an issue if Hernandez were able to miss bats at an elite level, but he's unable to do that. He has a 19.6 percent strikeout rate, good for the 34th percentile.
Chances are, a pitcher with a bloated walk rate who allows a ton of contact is going to be tough to trust late in games. Hernandez is a good pitcher who absolutely should be part of this Braves' bullpen, but if he's their primary set-up man, it's hard to believe too strongly in their late-game chances. Without a better in-house candidate, Alex Anthopoulos ought to consider a trade.