To say that the start of the 2025 campaign has been a disaster for the Atlanta Braves would be a major understatement. The team lost each of its first seven games of the season and is now 3-10 on the year after Friday's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.
The lone bright spot for the Braves now is that Spencer Strider, one of the best pitchers on the planet, is nearing his return after a year on the sidelines. The next time he takes the ball will likely be at the Major League level; the only question after Strider's most recent rehab start was who would he replace in the rotation?
Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grant Holmes are safe, but the Braves could have seemingly given either AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder the boot based on how they've started the season. After Friday's game, this decision should be a no-brainer. Elder should be removed from Atlanta's rotation.
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Braves loss makes it clear Bryce Elder should be odd-man out of Atlanta's rotation when Spencer Strider returns
Elder got the ball in Friday's series opener against the Tampa Bay Rays with a chance to make his case to stick around, and let's just say things could've gone better. The right-hander allowed five runs on nine hits in six innings of work and surrendered a pair of home runs. There were some bright spots, to be fair: Elder did not issue a free pass and managed to get through six innings. Even with that, though, it's tough to justify keeping him in the rotation at this point.
Not too long ago, Elder was an All-Star, earning a spot on the National League team at the 2023 Mid-Summer Classic. Since then, though, he has not been an MLB-caliber pitcher, for whatever reason. He had a 5.11 ERA in the second half of 2023, had a 6.52 ERA in 10 starts for the Braves last season, and has allowed eight runs in 10 innings of work (7.20 ERA) through two appearances in 2025. Yes, you'd like to see the Braves score more than three runs in support, but Elder didn't pitch well at all on Friday.
To be fair, Smith-Shawver hasn't pitched well either, but he does offer more upside since the Braves don't really know what he is. Smith-Shawver has nine MLB appearances in the regular season and eight starts under his belt. Giving him more than two starts to settle in might prove to be beneficial, much like it was for Schwellenbach last season. Additionally, the Braves awarded him the No. 5 starter job over Elder after spring training. Bailing on that plan now after Elder has struggled as much as he has would not make much sense.
At this point, the Braves know what they're going to get from Elder, and it's not much. He proved that once again on Friday. Keeping him over Smith-Shawver in the rotation when Strider returns would be incredibly tough to justify. This isn't saying Smith-Shawver is going to dominate, but the Braves should know at this point that Elder is not it. Keeping him away from the rotation and from the big league roster in general will give the Braves a better chance to win games.