The Milwaukee Brewers have officially designated Joel Payamps for assignment, ending his two-plus-year tenure with the team. On one hand, DFA'ing a reliever with an ERA over 8.00 makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, though, this move feels a bit short-sighted — and one that the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee's NL Central rivals, can take advantage of.
The Cubs, as has been the case for a couple of years now, need bullpen help. Well, Payamps is a reliever, and he happens to have an excellent track record.
The right-hander had a 3.05 ERA in 68 appearances last season, and a 2.55 ERA in 69 appearances the year prior. He had been a go-to, high-leverage arm for now current Cubs manager Craig Counsell to turn to over and over again in that 2023 campaign. This season has been a mess for Payamps, but it feels as if the Cubs have a real opportunity to improve their club here.
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Brewers short-sighted move has potential to backfire while simultaneously benefitting Cubs
To put it simply, Payamps has not been good for the Brewers this season. He has an 8.35 ERA in 23 appearances and 18.1 innings of work. With that being said, though, there are a several factors at play that suggest that his ERA might be the result of some poor luck.
First, Payamps has allowed 10 of his 17 earned runs in two brutal outings. There's no excuse for appearances in which he's allowed five runs, but he's also held the opposition off the board 14 times, and even threw a pair of scoreless innings in one appearance. Second, the opposition has a seemingly impossibly high .373 BABIP against him, and that's partially why his FIP is only at 4.44. The league average is around .300. His 52.2 percent strand rate is yet another unlucky indicator.
However, while luck has not been on his side, it'd be misleading to suggest that he's pitched well. He has not: His strikeout rate is at just 19 percent, as low as it's been in years, and his ground ball rate of 29 percent is as low as it's been in his career. He's allowed too many balls to be hit in the air or on a line, and the results show just that. For Payamps to be more successful, he's going to have to strike more guys out and generate more ground balls.
Still, while he hasn't pitched well this season, there's reason to believe that perhaps with a change of scenery, and maybe with a reunion with his former manager, Payamps might be able to turn things around to an extent. He shouldn't be considered a lockdown closer at all, but again, this guy was a really good reliever just last year. At 31 years old, it isn't inconceivable to think he can be a useful reliever again. In fact, over his past 14 appearances, he has a 3.09 ERA and a 2.99 FIP. He's looked better, which adds to the strange timing of this move.
With the Cubs needing bullpen help, this feels like a swing worth taking, especially since it'd likely cost them nothing but money to acquire him. If it fails, the Cubs don't lose much. If it succeeds, their team is better for it, and Cubs fans get to rub this success into Brewers fans' faces. It's a win-win.