Browns NFL Draft scenarios: What pick Cleveland could end up with win or loss in Week 18

Another nightmare season for the Cleveland Browns is just about over, and for fans, the offseason can't come soon enough. Just about everything that could go wrong for Kevin Stefanski's team has, from defensive regression to another injury (and more terrible play) from erstwhile franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson. Cleveland kissed a playoff spot goodbye months ago; it's long past time to look toward who should be back next season, and what changes need to be made.

Just what changes the Browns can make, however, will in large part be decided by how the final weekend of the regular season shakes out. Cleveland may not have anything left to play for in 2024, but they have a lot to lose for — namely, a shot at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Where might the Browns wind up picking? Let's go over all the possible options.

Browns NFL Draft scenarios: How can Cleveland nab the No. 1 pick?

Entering Week 18, the Browns are slated to pick third in the next year's draft, behind the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans and ahead of the New York Giants. All four teams are tied for the worst record in the league at 3-13, but the strength of schedule tiebreaker has the Pats (.467 opponent winning percentage) on top, with Tennessee (.515), Cleveland (.540) and New York (.551) trailing behind.

The size of that winning percentage gap means that Cleveland cannot gain any ground in the tiebreaker race. Which means that, if the Browns want the No. pick, they're going to need to lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday afternoon and get some significant help. Both the Patriots and Titans need to beat the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans, respectively; Cleveland would win out if it finishes tied with the Giants in the standings, but will fall behind either New England or Tennessee and thus needs wins from each.

The good news is that the Bills and Texans don't have much of anything to play for this weekend, and could very well sit their biggest names for all of some of their Week 18 games; Buffalo has already committed to starting Mitchell Trubisky and giving Josh Allen a week off. But the bad news is that, well, New England and Tennessee are absolutely still capable of losing to a team of backups.

If New England and Tennessee each win and finish at 4-13, then a Browns loss to the Ravens guarantees them of the No. 1 pick. The only other team that could finish at 3-14 is the Giants, who have played a tougher schedule. If either New England or Tennessee lose, though, then the highest Cleveland can climb would be to No. 2 overall.

Browns NFL Draft scenarios: How far can Cleveland fall with a Week 18 win?

Of course, there's also the possibility that the Browns can still fall down the pecking order with a win this weekend. Okay, so it's a remote possibility, considering that Baltimore needs a win to clinch the AFC North and should feast on whatever combination of Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe they face. But if Cleveland does somehow manage to pull the upset, it could cost them dearly: The Jaguars, Panthers and Jets are all sitting at 4-12 and would have the edge on the Browns thanks to the strength of schedule tiebreaker.

The upshot: A Browns win plus losses from Jacksonville, Carolina and both New York teams would drop Cleveland all the way to the seventh overall pick. (The Raiders and Bears are also at 4-12 but cannot leapfrog the Browns based on the strength of schedule tiebreaker, meaning that seventh is the farthest the team could fall.)