Bubble watch: Breaking down Arkansas' full resume in John Calipari's first season

It’s crazy to say this, but John Calipari had some big shoes to fill when Eric Musselman departed Arkansas to take the opening at USC after last season. Under Musselman, the Razorbacks made three-straight NCAA Tournament appearances from 2021-2023, reaching the Elite Eight in 2021 and 2022. 

In 2023, as a No. 8 seed, the Razorbacks advanced to the Sweet Sixteen before losing to eventual champion, UConn. Arkansas missed the tournament in 2024. That’s why they turned to Calipari as Musselman’s successor. 

Calipari was a mainstay in the NCAA Tournament during his time at Kentucky. Now in year one at Arkansas, he can have that same success. Though this year will be a challenge getting to the NCAA Tournament. 

According to Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology report, the Razorbacks are one of the first four teams out of the field of 68. The good thing is, Selection Sunday isn’t in four days. There’s time for Calipari to get his team locked into the NCAA Tournament field. 

Here’s what the Razorbacks have done to deserve to be on bubble watch and what’s hindered them from being one of the tournament lock teams. 

Bracketology: Breaking down Arkansas' full resume in John Calipari's first season

The Good

Arkansas jumped out to an 11-2 start to the 2024-25 season, putting Calipari’s new squad on the map. Things took a dramatic turn downward after SEC play started. Prior to conference play, the Razorbacks picked up a ranked win over Michigan, which was No. 14 at the time. 

Following Michigan’s big win over Purdue on Tuesday night, that win is carrying their resume right now. Other than a win over No. 12 Kentucky, Calipari’s former team, Arkansas can thank those for boosting their resume. 

Arkansas is currently ranked 41 in the latest NET rankings. They have four Quad 1 and 2 wins this year, which will go a long way in determining their NCAA Tournament fate. The good thing too is other than Wednesday’s game against LSU, the rest of their games are either Quad 1 or Quad 2. They also have the SEC conference tournament. 

But not all is peachy for the Razorbacks, which is why they’re a bubble team to begin with. 

The Bad

The Razorbacks are even in this predicament thanks to a torrid start to conference play. After winning six straight and 10 of 11 games after starting 1-1, Arkansas started SEC play 0-5. They lost to then No. 1 ranked Tennessee, No. 23 Ole Miss and No. 8 Florida in succession.

That was followed by two-straight losses to unranked opponents in LSU and Missouri. They’ve been playing catch up ever since. After the horrible start, they’ve won three of five since. While they have four Quad 1 and 2 wins, that’s just a smoke screen. 

They are just 4-9 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. That’s not ideal for a team that has seven such games remaining on their schedule. The good thing is they haven’t been getting blown out in those games. That said, they aren’t winning them.