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Buccaneers playoff scenarios: What’s at stake win or lose in Week 16 vs. Cowboys

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have turned their season around and now they're in the driver's seat in the NFC South.

By Alicia de Artola

Dec 15, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) moves out to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Dec 15, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) moves out to pass against the Los Angeles Chargers during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming into Week 16 with four straight victories and a very real chance to make the NFL playoffs.

When they went into their bye at 4-6 and on a four-game losing streak, Tampa Bay looked dead in the water. It's amazing what a few wins can do.

In Week 16, they're on the road for the last time in the regular season and that might be a good thing. The Dallas Cowboys have a terrible home record in 2024 with one win in six. Since the Falcons won their matchup against the Giants, it's up to the Bucs to keep pace.

What does a win or loss on Sunday mean for the final stretch of the playoff hunt? Let's have a look.

Buccaneers playoff scenarios: Current NFC playoff standings

NFC Team

Record

1. Lions

13-2

2. Eagles

12-3

3. Rams

9-6

4. Buccaneers

8-6

5. Vikings

12-2

6. Packers

10-4

7. Commanders

10-5

The Buccaneers hold the No. 4 seed and the lead in the NFC South with an 8-6 record. The Falcons are on the outside looking in at 8-7.

A lot can chance in the last few weeks of the season. Tampa Bay is in good shape, but they still need to do some work to clinch their place in the postseason.

Remaining Buccaneers schedule and playoff implications

  • at Cowboys in Week 16
  • vs. Panthers in Week 17
  • vs. Saints in Week 18

After facing the Cowboys in Dallas, the Buccaneers will end their season with divisional matchups with the Panthers and Saints. They already beat both of those teams on the road. They'll hope Raymond James Stadium will play host to similar results.

The Buccaneers can win NFC South if...

  • Buccaneers match or exceed Falcons win total in final three games.

I think Greg Auman summed it up about as clearly as possible. The Bucs have a magic number of three, meaning any combination of Tampa Bay wins and Atlanta losses that equals three clinches the division.

Atlanta already won one of their last three with Sunday's victory over the Giants. The Bucs have five games to find three "wins" be they literal Ws for TB or losses for the Falcons.

That means Tampa Bay can lose to the Cowboys and still win the division so long as they beat one or both of the Panthers and Saints while the Falcons lose one or both games against the Commanders and Panthers.

If the Bucs beat the Cowboys, they can win at least one of their last two games to clinch the division, regardless of what Atlanta does.

Basically, the only thing the Bucs can't afford to do is lose out.

There is a limited scenario where Tampa Bay makes the playoffs without winning the division.

The Buccaneers can clinch the NFC wild card if...

  • Buccaneers beat two of Cowboys, Panthers and Saints + Commanders lose to Falcons and Cowboys

Because the Commanders have 10 wins, Tampa Bay has to find a way to match them while also winning tie breakers.

Let's simplify this: The vast majority of playoff scenarios that involve Tampa Bay getting in involve a division title. They control their own destiny in the division, so win all three of their remaining games and all the ifs go away.

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