Growth is the offseason goal for every NBA team. However, the Milwaukee Bucks this offseason arrives as a reckoning for a team seemingly stuck in a downward spiral. If the Milwaukee Bucks follow the script, Giannis Antetokounmpo should be on the first train outta town to Houston or San Antonio.
Jon Horst is expected to drive a hard bargain. Antetokounmpo, 30, is a two-time MVP who finished among the top 3 in votes several times, including this last season. However, if enough teams atop the lottery rebuff Milwaukee, the Bucks still have the option to retain Antetokounmpo, paper over the cracks, and trudge forward while rebuilding their foundation for 2026-27.
Bucks roster is stuck between a rock and a hard place
The Bucks have very few factors working in their favor. They’re capped out and boxed in. The roster is tenuous and 90 percent of their roster is on the wrong end of the development spectrum. However, one advantage they have is the Eastern Conference’s collective mediocrity. The East is currently mid enough in the wake of Jayson Tatum’s injury that the 2026-27 campaign could see another Cinderella team ascend to the surface. Milwaukee’s loss to the Pacers in five games also looks better in hindsight
Only four players are on guaranteed contracts for 2025-26. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, Kyle Kuzma, and reserve Tyler Smith. Unfortunately, Lillard will miss the entire 2025-26 season and Kuzma is a hologram of the player Milwaukee thought they were getting. He lost his corporeal form and vanished in nearly every moment he was asked to step up to the plate.
However, those four contracts count for $132 million against a projected $154.6 million cap. Bobby Portis' Pat Connaughton and Kevin Porter Jr. also have player options that could tack on another $24 million to their payroll.
Gary Trent Jr. is the toughest decision for Horst. ESPN's Kevin Pelton believes Trent will negotiate a deal that lands somewhere between the $18.6 million he made last season in Toronto and the minimum deal he played on in Milwaukee. As the youngest feature player in the Bucks lineup, it seems imperative that Horst keep him in the fold. The best-case pipe dream scenario is that he’s a derivative of Norm Powell Jr. At the very least, Trent can return as a dependable 3-and-D wing who spaced the floor and defended well despite getting benched early in the season by Doc Rivers. At worst, he’s a future trade asset.
Kevn Porter Jr. is the most consequential wild card. KPJ has a player option for next season worth $2.5 million. However, following a 2022 domestic violence incident and subsequent waiving by the Houston Rockets, his reputation remains toxic. Front offices understand that any temporary gains with KPJ can be undone at a moment’s notice and that his poise in 2025 could be a dead cat bounce.
The Rockets were so wary of extending him in 2022 that they built opt-out trap doors into his four-year $82 million contract extension. The Thunder triggered the ejection button a year later after the Rockets suspended and traded him. If he opts out, it would be for a more generous one-year deal.
Pivot from a reboot to a revival
There's also a limit to how well a Giannis-era revival can gain life if the newly extended Horst continues scouting like he's staring into a solar eclipse. Tim Connelly and RC Buford consistently hit on picks in the late first or second round. Horst has never demonstrated the dexterity needed to thread the needle. Trading AJ Johnson and Khris Middleton for Kuzma feels like an extinction-level event. Kuzma rattled around on the perimeter like a loose pin in a grenade after being traded to Milwaukee and he’s due to make $42 million over the next two years.
The Bucks won’t have the space to chase big-time free agents. However, they have the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, a $5.1 million bi-annual exception as well as a trade exception to use this summer. Bobby Portis’ expiring contract could also be leveraged in a deal if he opts in as well.
Talents on par with DeAnthony Melton, Ty Jerome, Dorian Finney-Smith, or Quentin Grimes could come relatively cheap. The Bucks aren’t completely devoid of access to future picks until 2031, but they’re in a pickle. There’s no incentive to gut the roster and tank because in the years they do own their first, it can be snatched out from beneath them in a swap.
A hard reset around the Greek Freak may have to rely on assembling a rugged team of defensive grinders and 3-and-D overachievers. It’s easier said than done. In the end, the Bucks’ path depends on Horst’s (double)vision and his execution.
If the Bucks are committed to sticking by Antetokounmpo and holding out for Lillard until 2026, a top-five side isn’t outside the realm of possibilities. There is no easy out. Only difficult questions. And for a franchise with a generational talent still in his prime, the wrong answer could echo for years.