BYU must avoid Arizona trap game to stay alive in the College Football Playoff race

There are two undefeated teams left in the Big 12, and the BYU Cougars are one of them! Along with the No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones, No. 14 BYU is 5-0 on the year and 2-0 in conference play. The Cougars have beaten Kansas State and Baylor in Big 12 play. While non-conference wins over Wyoming and Southern Illinois don't do very much, they also beat a serious ACC contender in SMU.

Right now, BYU is viewed as the second best team in the new Big 12 behind Iowa State. It may not be by much, but I think the general public trusts Matt Campbell's team a little more than Kalani Sitake's. Furthermore, I think we trust Iowa State's ability to get to Arlington a bit more than we do BYU. Iowa State went back in 2020, while BYU is only in its second season in the Big 12. They are ascending.

However, the last thing BYU needs right now is to come up short in a critical Big 12 game from a perception standpoint in Arizona. The Wildcats have not been steady this season, as they are 3-2. This was always going to be a transitional year for them. BYU needs to take all of its positive momentum from the first half and crush Arizona's spirit. A win on Saturday does wonders for BYU.

Conversely, a loss at home to Arizona would reopen a can of worms for who can get to Arlington.

BYU needs to prove it is a legitimate playoff contender vs. Arizona

One of the things in BYU's favor is a fairly navigable Big 12 slate. Of the seven remaining conference games, I would say hosting Arizona is probably their third or fourth most difficult. Having to go on the road to Arizona State and Utah for the Holy War are clearly one and two. I would say going to Orlando to face UCF could be challenging as well. BYU can afford one conference loss, but possibly not two.

At 11-1 (8-1), BYU would almost certainly get to Arlington. I don't know if a conference title bout loss to an Iowa State, a Colorado, or a Texas Tech would keep them out of the playoff entirely, but you don't want to take any chances. To me, losing at home to Arizona would do devastating things to the Cougars' national perception as a serious College Football Playoff contender. But why would that be?

Well, I feel like dropping the fourth hardest game left on your schedule when you have all the momentum in your favor heading into the matchup would suggest a definite ceiling for this team. What it would do is create doubt. More importantly, it would knock the Cougars down considerably in the next AP Top 25 Poll. Would they have enough runway to overcome a potentially bad Big 12 loss?

Ultimately, I feel like BYU needs to continue to earn the respect of its new conference members. In short, they are not going to be given the benefit of the doubt by the Selection Committee when their case as an at-large team would be borderline. All things equal, I believe that Iowa State, Colorado, Kansas State, and even Texas Tech or West Virginia would be viewed far more favorably than BYU.

The Arizona game feels like a tipping point to be all-in or all-out on BYU, so where do you stand?