There's a clear favorite for the WNBA's Most Improved Player award, with Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark sitting at +400 odds.
In fact, the top of the betting odds are heavy on second-year players. The top six candidates at BetMGM are players entering their second WNBA seasons.
But are the betting odds wrong?
A second-year player hasn't won the award since Jonquel Jones in 2017 and the past three winners have all been players in their fourth seasons. Last year, Connecticut's DiJonai Carrington wn the award.
So, Clark is the betting favorite, but recent trends don't necessarily suggest she should be.
Keeping that in mind, here are my top 10 Most Improved Player candidates.
10. Zia Cooke
Starting with a pick that's just a little bit out of left field, but with a number of injuries on the Seattle roster, Zia Cooke could see a surprisingly big workload in 2025.
Cooke averaged just 8.9 minutes per game in 2024, a drop from her rookie numbers, but her move to Seattle opens up options that didn't exist in Los Angeles. Jordan Horston and Nika Muhl have already been lost for the season, opening up backup guard minutes. If Cooke can take a step forward as an off-ball scorer, she can be one of the league's top surprises.
9. Aaliyah Edwards
While I mentioned that a second-year player hasn't won the award in awhile, this list is still going to be heavy on players from last year's draft class because last year's class feels particularly poised to take a collective step forward.
Aaliyah Edwards was impressive last year, starting 17 games for the Mystics and averaging 7.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per contest. She'd be higher on this list if the Mystics hadn't drafted Kiki Iriafen, who will likely siphon off a few too many of her minutes for her to make a serious MIP run.
8. Aari McDonald
Could this be the year for Aari McDonald? Entering her fifth WNBA season, McDonald is likely to find herself starting next to Kelsey Plum in the Sparks backcourt. She won't face a ton of competition for minutes based on this current depth chart. McDonald just needs to concentrate on making her shots at a higher clip.
7. Kate Martin
From a talent perspective, Kate Martin probably isn't up there with the rest of this list, but she has two very important things working in her favor in 2025: playing time and determination.
Martin landed on the expansion Valkyries, so instead of playing a mostly reserve role in Vegas, she's likely to either start or be the main sixth player for Golden State. On a team that lacks big scoring threats outside of Tiffany Hayes, Martin could see a huge jump in her numbers.
6. Rickea Jackson
Rickea Jackson is an interesting option here. Because the Sparks added Kelsey Plum, Jackson probably won't have much room to increase her rookie scoring average of 13.4, which could lead to her being overlooked in the voting.
But Jackson can still make a run at the award if she can increase her efficiency. As the No. 2 or No. 3 scoring option for the Sparks, Jackson should face less pressure, and another year of familiarity with WNBA defenses should make it easier for her to consistently beat them.
5. Kamilla Cardoso
Sometimes it felt like Kamilla Cardoso was overlooked as a rookie, but that should change in 2025.
Cardoso ranked 10th in the league last season in field goal percentage, but 48th in field goals attempted. She has a relatively straightforward MIP player case: up the volume while maintaining similar efficiency.
Cutting down on the fouls while staying near the top of the league in blocks would also help her argument.
4. Angel Reese
The path to Angel Reese winning Most Improved Player is probably the simplest of anyone. She just has to finish out plays.
Reese's rebounding ability translated seamlessly to the pros, but she was, for lack of a better word, bad at getting buckets, which was part of why Reese averaged a league-high 5.1 offensive rebounds per game.
As a rookie, Reese took more shots in the restricted area than any WNBA player. That's good, in theory, because there's really no easier place to score than in the restricted area.
The problem was Reese shot 47.1 percent on those looks. That ranked 117th among 127 WNBA players. So, uhh...yeah, that's bad. She also ranked 120th in field goal percentage on paint attempts outside of the restricted area.
Reese has a very good shot at Most Improved if she can just, like, become a league-average finisher instead of arguably the worst finisher in the entire league. I'm just not sure I'm sold on that actually happening.
3. Caitlin Clark
I really don't know if Caitlin Clark should be in the Most Improved Player discussion, but the betting odds suggest that a lot of people probably feel differently.
Here's the thing: Clark should improve in her second season. She can cut down on turnovers. She can shoot a little better from 3-point range.
But at this point, Clark has a very good argument for being the fourth or fifth-best player in the WNBA. It's also going to be very, very tough to break into the top three of Breanna Stewart, A'ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier.
So if the fifth-best player in preseason rankings ends up as the fourth-best player in the league, yeah – that's improvement, but it's not surprising improvement, you know? A'ja Wilson upped her scoring average by 4.1 points per game last season and you didn't see her getting MIP votes.
I might be wrong here, but I just think Caitlin Clark is already too good of a player to be the Most Improved Player.
2. Cameron Brink
If Cameron Brink can come back healthy after tearing her ACL last June, she'll have a great shot at the award.
Sure, it's "Most Improved," not "Comeback Player of the Year," but I'm sure the narrative of Brink returning from the knee injury won't hurt.
As a rookie, Brink was already an imposing figure on defense, using her length to average 2.3 blocks per game. Her scoring was a little more uneven, but if Brink can get her field goal percentage closer to 45 percent instead of the 39.8 percent mark she was at in 2024, her biggest weakness last year — finishing in the paint — won't look so glaring. Add in continued defensive development and we'd be looking at a second-year player who might lead the league in blocks while averaging somewhere around 12 points per game? That'd make her a strong candidate.
1. NaLyssa Smith
If you look at the odds, NaLyssa Smith isn't even on the board, but a lot of things align to give her a viable shot at the award. She's my early pick for Most Improved.
Why is she ahead of the other players, aside from the recent trend of winners not being second-year players?
One big part is that Smith is coming off a third WNBA campaign where she struggled to fit in with her team's new direction, leading to a pretty big drop in her numbers, and now she's suddenly in a new home where she'll have a chance to get back to her previous numbers.
We've seen Smith average 15 points and nine rebounds per game before. We know she can be really good. And after a down 2024 season, if Smith can get back to her 2023 numbers, she's going to look like she's taken a big leap.