Can Ohio State lose to Michigan and still make the College Football Playoff?

Ohio State is one Will Howard poorly timed slide away from being 11-0 right now and already having a spot clinched in the Big Ten Championship game. Instead, a loss to Oregon last month means the Buckeyes need a win (or a loss from Penn State or Indiana) on Saturday to punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship, which would also punch them a ticket to the College Football Playoff. Right now, ESPN gives Ohio State a 99% chance to make the CFP. Pretty good.

The only universe where Ohio State needs to worry about missing the CFP is a universe where the Buckeyes lose to Michigan this weekend and still manage to make the Big Ten Championship game, which it also loses. And even in that universe, the Buckeyes could still feasibly get in.

Would a loss to Michigan knock Ohio State out of the College Football Playoff?

Not likely. The Buckeyes do have a loss and losing your final regular season game is never a great last impression to leave on the selection committee, but Ohio State has done plenty this season to be secure in its CFP chances, most notably wins against rival Big Ten foes Penn State and Indiana.

Although losing the season finale would give Ohio State two losses, it doesn't eliminate the Buckeyes from Big Ten Championship game, which, as weird as it sounds, might not bode well for the team.

If Ohio State loses on Saturday and then loses in the Big Ten Championship, then we're talking about a 3-loss, non-conference champion Big Ten team, and the odds of that team making the CFP become a little more slim — but still pretty likely.

If Ohio State beats Michigan on Saturday, it's in the College Football Playoff, no matter what happens in the Big Ten Championship. If Ohio State loses on Saturday and doesn't make the Big Ten Championship, then it will still make the College Football Playoff. The only scenario in which Ohio State doesn't make the CFP is if it loses to Michigan, still makes the Big Ten Championship game, and then loses that game,