Can Oregon lose to Washington and still make the College Football Playoff?

Oregon's spot in the CFP is looking pretty secure with one regular season game remaining.
Oregon v Wisconsin
Oregon v Wisconsin / John Fisher/GettyImages
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The Oregon Ducks have been a forgone conclusion most of the year. By that, I mean we all kind of expect them to win every week. Other than a scare against Wisconsin last weekend and some early season rust, the Ducks have rolled through their first season in the Big Ten with relative ease.

With one regular season game left on the schedule — a matchup with rival Washington on Saturday night — the Ducks remain undefeated at 11-0 and in prime position to make the College Football Playoff. In fact, they might have already done that.

At this point, the Ducks can kind of do whatever they want in their final two games (they have clinched a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game) and still punch a ticket to the CFP.

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Is there any world in which the Ducks don't make the field of 12? What would a loss to Washington this weekend do to their potential seeding?

A loss on Saturday would drop the Ducks in the rankings, but not out of the Playoff

Dropping to 11-1 this weekend wouldn't be good for Ducks fans morale — they hate the Huskies — but it wouldn't be detrimental to Oregon's Playoff hopes, either. Yes, it would knock them out of the No. 1 seed, but the Big Ten Championship remains the much more important game on Oregon's schedule. And even if the Ducks drop after a loss, a win in the conference title game might boost them back up to No. 1 anyway.

Sorry Huskies fans, you're not dashing the Playoff hopes of your rival like you did in last year's Pac-12 Championship. Ah, I haven't heard that name in years.

Oregon is still locked in for a bye with a win in the Big Ten Championship Game

Even with a potential loss this weekend, a win in the Big Ten Championship would give the Ducks a first-round bye in the CFP. A one-loss Big Ten champion will without a doubt earn a top-four seed, and the Ducks will likely head into the B10 Championship as favorites against Ohio State, Penn State or Indiana.

While the Ducks are already into that game, those other three teams are fighting for the right to play the Ducks for Big Ten supremacy. Ohio State just needs to beat Michigan on Saturday to punch its ticket, but there's always the possibility of chaos.

Oregon still makes the CFP with a loss to Washington and a loss in the Big Ten Championship

Pretend that, somehow, the Ducks get blown out this weekend and then get blown out in the Big Ten Championship game, finishing the season at 11-2 and runners up in the conference.

That's still going to be good enough for a spot in the CFP, just not a top-four seed. In this scenario, the Ducks still only have two losses, and one of them came in the conference championship game. The selection committee — as unpredictable as they can be — wouldn't leave the Ducks out after everything we've seen from them this season.

Long story short, the Ducks spot in the CFP is secure, these next two weeks just determine which seed they'll earn in the 12-team field.

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