Can Texas lose to Texas A&M and still make the College Football Playoff?

With just one loss in a tough SEC, the Texas Longhorns are in prime position for a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff field. They're the only team remaining in the conference with just one conference loss, and as of publication, ESPN gives Texas a 97% chance of making the bracket. But although Texas is just a few games away from a top-four seed in the field, they're not in the clear quite yet, as one major challenge still awaits the first-year SEC team.

That challenge is No. 20 Texas A&M this weekend. At 8-3, the Aggies own CFP hopes were dashed by Auburn last weekend, but that won't take away any of the hype of this weekend's showdown with Texas.

If the Aggies spring the upset on Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns, would that knock Texas out of the College Football Playoff race?

A loss to Texas A&M more than likely won't knock Texas out of the CFP

Probably. A two-loss SEC team (with losses to Texas A&M and Georgia) should feel pretty confident going into selection day, and that's what Texas would be if it falls to Mike Elko and the Aggies this weekend. Leaving out an 11-2 SEC team doesn't feel likely. But... you could make the argument that Texas is a multiple-loss team that didn't finish in the top two of its conference or make its conference championship game and doesn't really have a great win on its schedule. It's not that crazy of an argument, really.

Right now, the Longhorns best win might be Arkansas a couple weeks ago, which isn't stellar. It also beat Vanderbilt, Michigan and Florida, which are wins that don't impress anyone.

Even with a pretty weak collection of wins though, Texas is on relatively safe ground for the CFP, barring an embarrassing blowout loss this weekend — and even that probably won't keep the Longhorns out. To go from leading the SEC to missing the College Football Playoff a few weeks later isn't realistic.

A win on Saturday locks Texas into the CFP

With a win against Texas A&M, the Longhorns clinch a spot in the SEC Championship Game, and the Longhorns could lose by 100 in that game and still make the CFP.

A 3-loss team that makes the SEC Championship would, in all likelihood, still make the CFP. So Texas making (and losing) this game would mean the Longhorns finish as the runner-up in the SEC with an 11-2 record, which is probably good enough for the highest at-large CFP bid.