The St. Louis Cardinals remain three games above .500 and firmly in the NL Wild Card race, but a recent slump has left fans dreading what comes next. The trade deadline is a month and change from now on July 31. John Mozeliak, infamously stubborn and navigating his final season as president of baseball operations, will need to render a difficult decision: buy or sell?
How the Cardinals operate will depend on how the front office views their chances of contending. What we know is that St. Louis has stubbornly clung tight to veterans in the past, despite little to no path to World Series contention. This is an expensive, aging roster with minimal talent in the farm system and a deeply uncertain future.
While the Cardinals' pitching staff has outperformed expectations this season, in large part due to an elite defense, the St. Louis offense pales in comparison to Los Angeles, Chicago, New York and other NL heavyweights. Thinking this team can win the National League and sneak into the World Series discussion is probably misguided.
As such, St. Louis should probably look to sell high (or as high as they can) on a few key pieces. Odds are that won't actually happen.
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Cardinals should get off of Miles Mikolas before his production implodes
Miles Mikolas entered the final year of his contract in St. Louis with virtually zero expectations. The last couple years have been rough — he finished last season with a 5.35 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 32 starts. And yet, Mikolas has done more than the bare minimum, looking the part (on the surface) of a stable mid-rotation option.
That said, the trends aren't great. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 15 innings over his last three starts. It feels like the 36-year-old is starting to run out of gas. Plenty of contenders will take interest in Mikolas as a cheap depth option, as durable starting pitching has never been more of a premium asset in MLB. We don't know if the Cardinals will actually bite the bullet and execute a trade, however.
St. Louis is firmly in the postseason mix right now, which feels like the perfect excuse for Mozeliak to continue kicking the can down the road on a much-needed retool. The Cards won't get any elite prospects for Mikolas, but even a middle-tier pitcher to bring up in the farm system is worth it at this point. Few teams need young bodies more than St. Louis; letting Mikolas finish out the season would almost certainly yield diminishing returns on the mound. There's no good reason to keep him past the trade deadline.
Cardinals need to consider flipping Ryan Helsley before he leaves in free agency
The Cardinals could have traded Ryan Helsley for an absolute haul in the offseason, but Mozeliak resisted. Now, his production is on the decline. The 30-year-old has allowed a run in each of his last four appearances for St. Louis. He still boasts respectable numbers on the surface — 3.96 ERA, 30 strikeouts in 25.0 innings — but after a ninth-place finish in Cy Young voting a year ago, Helsley's WHIP has ballooned to 1.56 and it's getting difficult for the Cards to rely on him in his typical high-leverage spots.
There will still be a robust trade market for Helsley, as top-shelf relievers are never short on suitors. A number of contenders will gladly bank on Helsley returning to form after the All-Star break. Some may even invest in him as more of a setup or middle relief option, even if he's no longer a lights-out closer. Since he's a free agent at season's end and St. Louis seems unlikely to shell out the necessary contract to keep him under Chaim Bloom's leadership, trading him makes all the sense in the world... right?
Well, if the Cards are focused on making the playoffs, then there's a good chance Mozeliak gives Helsley the benefit of the doubt and keeps him around for the stretch run. He has spent his entire seven-year career in St. Louis and the Cardinals were completely unwilling to trade him mere months ago. As such, St. Louis fans should brace for the disappointment of keeping Helsley, watching him struggle down the stretch, and then bidding farewell next winter when he goes to, like, the Dodgers or the Cubs. It was written.
Cardinals should try to finally cut ties with Nolan Arenado
The Cardinals actually tried to trade Nolan Arenado last offseason, but his no-trade clause and an overstuffed contract made it rather difficult. St. Louis almost pushed a deal across the finish line with Houston, but Arenado balked at the last second and from there, talks were dead.
So how about the July 31 deadline? Arenado continues to flash his leather at third base, but the offense is back in a rut (.695 OPS) and his contract isn't any more palatable. There ought to be plenty of interest in Arenado leaguewide, but only if St. Louis absorbs the majority of his contract to lessen the financial burden on his new team.
That feels distinctly improbable, even if it's the only logical move. Arenado offers value to a contender as a battle-tested vet with incredible defensive utility at a premium position and enough slug to still contribute offensively, even if he's no longer an MVP-level cornerstone. The Cardinals clearly aren't getting off the money, but adding a couple bankable long-term prospects is worth letting the 34-year-old leave for greener pastures. It improves the farm system, gives the Cards more to look forward to, and avoids years of further disappointment in the former All-Star.
If the Cardinals decide to keep the postseason push going, however, swallowing tens of millions of dollars in salary to offload thier No. 5 hitter and their best defender probably will not compute. Not for Mozeliak, given how he has operated in the past. That shortsightedness is a real shame.