Nearly a year to the day, the Boston Celtics cruised to a 15-point win over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the second round of the 2024 playoffs to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. They were 8-2 at the time and had outscored their opponents by a whopping 114 points in 10 playoff games. They were rolling, and would continue to roll to the first championship of Jayson Tatum’s career.
Fast forward to Monday night, and what had been the NBA’s best bet at its newest dynasty folded to the floor. Tatum writhed on the court in anguish, seemingly knowing of the devastating injury that had befallen him.
Ahead of the Celtics’ Game 5 against the Knicks on Wednesday, Tatum underwent surgery for a ruptured right Achilles on Tuesday and there is no timetable for his return, although it’s an injury that typically takes at least 12 months. The injury threatens to rob Tatum of a season in his prime and derail Boston’s attempt at multiple championships.
Plenty of ink has been spilled on how much of a bummer this all is. I have nothing illuminating to add. Get well soon, Tatum.
But the Celtics are now at an unforeseen crossroads. How they handle the next year could determine whether the championship window is closed or if this injury is merely a dramatic interruption.
Even before Tatum’s injury in Boston’s Game 4 loss to the Knicks, the season was on the brink, and they were staring down the barrel of a historically expensive payroll.
Injury or not, the Celtics deserve to be down 3-1. Not only have they been outplayed by the Knicks in the series, they have also allowed their worst habits to steer them into blown leads and epic collapses. Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday are showing their age. Jaylen Brown hasn’t had a good game since Game 2 of the first round. They were bound for a point of reevaluation this summer.
The financial burden facing the Celtics was almost definitely going to lead to a talent drain. Now it makes even less sense to pay a potential tax bill soaring upwards of $200 million for a team Tatum won’t be a part of.
The Celtics are nearly $20 million over the second apron and $32 million over the first with 12 players under contract. With Tatum, maybe they could have gotten away with trading away one piece to dip below the second apron and make another run next season.
Without Tatum, paying any luxury tax makes little sense. They would be better off getting out of the luxury tax altogether. To get under the first apron, they’ll need to shed two of their bigger contracts. Everyone besides Tatum and Derrick White should be on the table.
Porzingis and Holiday are the obvious sacrifices, but it won’t be easy to move those contracts and will cost Boston some kind of sweetening asset.
Is it finally time to consider trading Brown, who is due $53 million next season and is on the books for one of the league’s richest contracts? Brown is an expensive No. 2, but there could be a team willing to make him their No. 1.
If the worst-case scenario with Tatum’s injury turns out to be true, Boston must spend these next 12 months ramping up for another multi-year run. Tatum is 26, and nobody questions his work ethic or dedication to the sport. If anyone can come back from this injury, it’s him.
But the roster needs work if the Celtics are going to revive their title hopes upon Tatum’s return to the court.
That means shedding payroll to increase flexibility, finding cheaper players who can contribute at a high level and making the most out of what – hopefully for Boston – should only be a gap year.
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NBA news roundup
Tyrese Haliburton had 31 points, eight assists and six rebounds to lead the Pacers to a 114-105 win over the Cavaliers.
- Indiana rallied back from 19 points down to eliminate the Cavaliers and advance to their second straight Eastern Conference finals.
- Pay attention: The Pacers are good and as complete a team left in these playoffs.
The Thunder stormed back and out-scored the Nuggets 34-19 in the fourth quarter to tak a 3-2 lead in the series.
- Battle of MVP candidates: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 31 points and Nikola Jokic finished with 44 points and 15 rebounds.
- Yikes: Non-Jokic Nuggets shot 1 for 15 in the fourth quarter.
Updated Finals MVP odds
Updated Finals MVP odds in the midst of these topsy-turvy playoffs. Here are the top five.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: The best player on the best, healthy team remaining. He’s the odds-on favorite according to most sports books.
- Jalen Brunson: If the Knicks move on, they have a chance to return to the Finals for the first time since 1999.
- Anthony Edwards: The new face of the NBA is coming.
- Tyrese Haliburton: Time to stamp Haliburton’s membership card to the club of Playoff Risers.
- Nikola Jokić: The odds drop quite a bit here, but you can’t rule out the best player on the planet.