Celtics offensive strategy will falter in playoffs unless something changes

For as great of a job that Brad Stevens did with what was oftentimes an average roster in his eight seasons as the Boston Celtics head coach, achieving a 55.7 winning percentage, he's done an even better job as the team's President of Basketball Operations. In four seasons with Stevens in that role, the Celtics have won 50 games, and they've reached the Eastern Conference Finals in the three full seasons preceding this one, including two trips to the Finals and a championship last year. While he was master in X's and O's and managing personnel with a clipboard on the bench, he's been even better in the front office, putting together a juggernaut of a starting lineup alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, with stellar bench pieces to boot.

For all of their strengths, though, the Celtics could use some of Stevens' creativity on offense, as they can find themselves resting on their laurels at times, playing under the guise that their talent will bail them out in tough situations. While that hasn't cost them yet, it very much might if they don't use this first round series to change it.

The Celtics are a unique potent offense that doesn't move the ball

Boston features six double-digit scorers with two others (Al Horford and Sam Hauser) capable of stepping up in case of injuries or rest and scoring in their own right. All that led them to have the second-highest offensive rating in the NBA, bolstered by their three-point shooting, where they ranked first in makes (17.8) and attempts (48.2) from beyond the arc. You would be safe to assume that most of them come from great ball movement, but the Celtics are unique in how they generate their looks.

For as many 3s as the Celtics put up during the regular season, most of them came off the dribble in isolation (they ranked first in frequency of Isolation plays at 16.7 percent). Out of their 48.2 threes attempted, only 20.0 of them were of the catch-and-shoot (CAS) variety, the second-fewest in the NBA. That might be impressive in a vacuum, but when compared with other teams near them in that category, it rings hollow. The Denver Nuggets were last in CAS threes (19.8) and in threes attempted in general (31.9), the Orlando Magic were tied in CAS threes with Boston and 23rd in general (35.3), and the Los Angeles Clippers round out the top five in CAS threes (21.5) and were 29th in threes attempted (33.4). The Minnesota Timberwolves (20.8 CAS threes) were the other exception, as they ranked fifth in threes with 39.9, but while they only had three players attempting at least 4.9 threes (Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid), Boston had eigth.

The Celtics barely move the ball at all, regardless of if they attempt a three or not. They ranked 16th in the regular season in assists (26.1), and just 24th in passes made with 274.7. That number has cratered to 230.5 in the four games they've played against the Magic, which has seen their offense drop from 116.3 points during the regular season to 103.0 in the first round of the playoffs. While yes, they're up 3-1 because they've played better than Orlando, it isn't because of their offense.

The Celtics are going to need more than depending on their defense to win back-to-back titles

The Magic, for their own right, have had their offense struggle even more than it did during the regular season: they lacked shooting (last in makes with 11.2 and last in 3P% with 31.8), which held their offense to just 105.4 points per game (28th), and they're scoring just 94.8 points in the playoffs with just 8.3 threes made and 28.0% from three, the least out of all teams in the field in all categories. They got into the postseason dance through their elite defense (allowed just 105.5 points per game, first in the NBA) and their star duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, who combined to score 50.1 points per game, 47.5 percent of Orlando's points. While they have kept Orlando afloat in this series (they've scored 58,0 points in the series, 61.2 percent or Orlando's scoring), it hasn't been enough to beat Boston.

The Celtics can get away with depending on their talent to beat Orlando, and it may also work in a hypothetical second round series against the New York Knicks, against whom Boston had success against during the season, beating them by double-digits in three of their four matchups. However, this playstyle has cost them during the season, leading them to their lowest low points of the season. It's also failed them against the best team in their conference, who they might have to see before reaching the Finals.

Their defense is never going to be a problem. They have two of the best guard defenders in the NBA (Jrue Holiday and Derrick White) as their starting backcourt, two superstars that are better on defense than they're given credit for (Tatum and Brown), great centers that can defend the paint and switch and hang in the perimeter (Horford, Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kornet), and even bench players that get picked on but aren't mismatches (Payton Pritchard, Hauser). They fly around the court, have multiple shot blockers, and versatile defenders that make them a hassle to score on. The offense, if anything, can be their weakness.

Of course, they have two of the isolation scorers in the NBA in Tatum and Brown, and can surround them at all times with great shooters around the floor. It's tough to not put them in positions where they can attack a matchup and score on their own, or make one pass for an open shot if help comes. It's ultimately what's them such a tough team to beat, and made them champions last season. But in this particular season, against this year's elite, all of them now gunning to beat Boston, what made them beatable only by themselves could end up being their undoing.