CFB conference championship game picks, predictions (Straight-Up and ATS): Texas' revenge?

College football conference championship week is upon us! It's been a grueling and highly chaotic regular season but now we appear to have the majority of the 12-team field for the College Football Playoff set. The big question that will be determined on Friday and Saturday in these conference championship games, however, will be the seeding and byes.

Perhaps one of the most fun things about conference championship week this season is the fact that we're light on rematches from the regular season. Penn Sate faces Oregon for the first time in 2024 with the Big Ten on the line, the same of which is true for SMU and Clemson in the ACC as well as Arizona State and Iowa State in the Big 12. And while Georgia and Texas did play previously before clashing for the SEC title, there is still a ton of intrigue for the rematch. That's before we even get to the Group of 5 as well!

But what's going to happen in this final week of games before bowl season? We'll try our best to predict just that with our college football conference championship game picks both straight-up and against the spread.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

College football conference championship game predictions (Straight-Up and ATS)

ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. SMU (-2.5)

In all honesty, this is more fading Clemson than anything — though I firmly believe that SMU has separated itself without question as the ACC's best this season. When you get down to it, though, what do you actually have on the Tigers' resumé that impresses you? They've played six bowl-eligible teams this season and went 3-3 in those games — the wins were against 6-6 Virginia Tech, 6-6 NC State and crumbling Pitt.

SMU has one of the best run defenses in the country, which I think could put Cade Klubnik and the Clemson offense in a bad spot. On the other side of the ball, the Mustangs with Kevin Jennings have the explosive and efficient offense that can control this game. While a Tigers win would cause more chaos for the CFP race, this feels like SMU's game to lose.

Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2.5)

Something I uncovered in my research this week: Iowa State played the worst strength of schedule in-conference among Big 12 teams. So perhaps their presence in the conference championship game shouldn't be surprising. Yet, even with Arizona State being the most unlikely entrant with a chance at earning a Playoff spot, it feels like the Sun Devils are better prepared and positioned in this matchup.

Iowa State ranks 84th in the country in Defensive Success Rate against the run. Especially with Jordan Tyson out for ASU, I think Kenny Dillingham dials up a heavy dose of Cam Skattebo and even QB Sam Leavitt in the run game to exploit that. On the flip side of that, this Cyclones offense should get some explosive plays in the pass game but their down-to-down success is lacking. Contrasted by the steady force of blows from the Sun Devils run game, Arizona State will complete their historic run.

Big Ten Championship Game: Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)

What in the history of James Franklin makes you think that Penn State is going to win this game or even cover against Oregon? While the Ducks are at a travel disadvantage having to go across the country to Indianapolis, they simply have more ways to win in this one, particularly offensively.

I do expect the Nittany Lions defense, much like they did against Ohio State, to have success and keep this a low-scoring game. The flip side of that loss to the Buckeyes earlier in the year, however, is that Penn State didn't score a single offensive touchdown. I could see something similar in this matchup, enough so that the Ducks should be able to get a comfortable win by at least a full touchdown.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)

Obviously, Georgia boat-raced Texas in Austin the first time these two teams met. So what's going to be different this time around? For one, that first matchup seemed to be just worst-case scenario for Texas. The defense, predictably, was stellar, forcing three turnovers from Carson Beck but the offense couldn't move the ball. With the emergence of Quintrevion Wisner as a lead back and the two-QB possibilities of Quinn Ewers and Arch Manning, though, I think Steve Sarkisian fixes that quickly.

More importantly, the variance of Georgia this season has ultimately been quite shocking. Their best was certainly on display, especially defensively. But there is no evidence to definitively say that'll be the case again in the rematch. So I'm going with the adjustments and improvements we've seen from Texas carrying them through.

Group of 5 Championship Games

CUSA Championship Game: Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State (-3.5)

Of all nine conference championship games this weekend, I have the least amount of feel on this one. The injury status of JSU quarterback Tyler Huff plays a big part in that uncertainty. Having said that, Western Kentucky's defense has been suspect for much of this season and I trust Rich Rodriguez to be able to scheme up, with our without Huff, enough answers to push the Gamecocks to a CUSA title.

AAC Championship Game: Tulane vs. Army (+5.5)

Prior to Thanksgiving Day when the American title bout was already set, it seemed like Tulane would be a lock. After laying an egg against Memphis, though, I'm much less sure of that. This might be hair-brained but I'm beginning to wonder if Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall might not be thinking about his next head coaching move instead of what this Tulane team has in front of him. On the chance that's the case and now having to defend a potent iteration of the triple option, give me Army to pull off the upset.

Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV (+3.5) vs. Boise State

Make no mistake and look above: I think Boise State wins this game. Having said that, the Broncos have looked like a lesser version of themselves of late. UNLV should be able to find plenty of offensive success in this matchup and be able to make Boise sweat this one. At home on the blue turf, though, I'm going to keep my wagon hitched to Ashton Jeanty and Co. to get me home on my preseason pick of the Broncos representing the G5 in the CFP.

MAC Championship Game: Ohio vs. Miami OH (-1.5)

If you want great coaching matchups, look no further than Ohio's Tim Albon against Miami (OH)'s Chuck Martin — for my money, the two best in the MAC. Having said that, Albon's job this season has been far more difficult than Martin's. This was supposed to be a rebuilding year but the Bobcats overcame that to make it to Detroit. Unfortunately, the buck stops here. The Redhawks can limit Ohio's one-dimensional run-based offense and have more ways to win offensively. It might be a slugfest but the talent discrepancy in an even coaching matchup will pull through for Miami.

Sun Belt Championship Game: Marshall (+5.5) vs. Louisiana

Louisiana ran to the top of the Sun Belt standings on the back of its offense. The dirty secret of that, however, is that the Ragin' Cajuns didn't play many of the conference's best defenses. When they did, they lost to South Alabama and were pushed by Texas State. Marshall, on the other hand, boasts the best defense in the conference. I think they give a rude awakening to Louisiana and are able to control the game with their rushing attack against a putrid Ragin' Cajuns run defense.