CFP Bracketology: How do the SMU Mustangs make the College Football Playoff?

It came down to Alabama and SMU, and the College Football Playoff Selection Committee picked Alabama. It should not come as much of a surprise given the histories of these college football programs. Alabama is arguably the greatest of all time, while SMU has resurfaced out of a Lazarus pit some 40 years after the Death Penalty. Regardless, these teams are vying for similar playoff spots.

Alabama is 6-2 on the season with a win over Georgia, but losses to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. SMU is 8-1 on the year with wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh, but a non-conference loss to BYU. While the Mustangs control their own playoff destiny more so than even the Crimson Tide do, we have to wonder if the Ponies could pass the eye test if they do not end up winning the ACC Championship.

Before we get into all of that, here is a look at the top 25 teams in the country heading into Week 11.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
3. Georgia Bulldogs
4. Miami Hurricanes
5. Texas Longhorns
6. Penn State Nittany Lions
7. Tennessee Volunteers
8. Indiana Hoosiers
9. BYU Cougars
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. Boise State Broncos
13. SMU Mustangs
14. Texas A&M Aggies
15. LSU Tigers
16. Ole Miss Rebels
17. Iowa State Cyclones
18. Pittsburgh Panthers
19. Kansas State Wildcats
20. Colorado Buffaloes
21. Washington State Cougars
22. Louisville Cardinals
23. Clemson Tigers
24. Missouri Tigers
25. Army Black Knights

Based on certain seeding protocols, here is what the College Football Playoff bracket would look like.

1. Oregon Ducks (Projected Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia Bulldogs (Projected SEC champion)
3. Miami Hurricanes (Projected ACC champion)
4. BYU Cougars (Projected Big 12 champion)
5. Ohio State Buckeyes (Projected Big Ten runner-up)
6. Texas Longhorns (Projected SEC runner-up)
7. Penn State Nittany Lions (Projected Big Ten at-large)
8. Tennessee Volunteers (Projected SEC at-large)
9. Indiana Hoosiers (Projected Big Ten at-large)
10. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Projected national Independent at-large)
11. Alabama Crimson Tide (Projected SEC at-large)
12. Boise State Broncos (Projected Mountain West/Group of Five champion)

And look who is among the first four teams out? It is SMU and a trio of contending SEC programs.

• 13. SMU Mustangs (Projected ACC runner-up)
• 14. Texas A&M Aggies (SEC)
• 15. LSU Tigers (SEC)
• 16. Ole Miss Rebels (SEC)

Let's now unpack what needs to happen for No. 13 SMU at 8-1 (5-0) to make it the playoff this season.

What has to happen for SMU Mustangs to make College Football Playoff

The simplest explanation is SMU will get in as the ACC champion if the Mustangs win out. They would be 12-1 (8-0), which would absolutely merit a top-four seed, probably having them firmly inside the top eight in terms of overall rankings. The Mustangs would get the boost from being a conference champion, but they would have made the 12-team playoff field anyway based on their high ranking.

Looking ahead at what SMU has left, it should be a cakewalk for the Ponies to get to Charlotte. They only have ACC games left. The Mustangs will be on a bye this week before hosting Boston College, going to Virginia and then hosting Cal. At 11-1 (8-0), they would be a lock to make it to the ACC Championship Game, no matter what happens for teams like Miami, Clemson, Pitt and Louisville.

A conference loss to either Boston College, Virginia or Cal could have them tied with Clemson at 7-1 in ACC play. SMU has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt, so the Panthers would need the Mustangs to lose twice to have any realistic shot at getting to Charlotte. Keep in mind that SMU does not play Clemson or Miami this year, but does own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Pitt and U of L.

The interesting part in all this is if SMU went 11-1 (8-0) and did not qualify for the ACC Championship Game, they would be in the playoff field no matter what. Since that is no longer possible because they only two teams who could get to 8-0 in ACC play are Miami and SMU, the Mustangs would get there with that record. The biggest question regarding SMU is would they still get in with a loss in Charlotte?

I think it would have to be a close loss to Miami, or whomever, to help the Mustangs overcome their former Group of Five status label. If they get blown out by the Hurricanes, that might be difficult. They would really need for BYU to either go undefeated or merely win the Big 12. That is another huge feather in SMU's cap. Their only loss is to a fellow College Football Playoff contender in the Cougars.

So let's say BYU wins the Big 12 and SMU's only other loss is a close one in the ACC Championship Game. Where does that leave us? That would leave the Ponies competing with a slew of other teams in the at-large pool. The ACC has the better chance of getting a second team over the Big 12, but Notre Dame falling out of the picture would be a huge help for a team looking for a spot in like SMU.

In most machinations, the ACC, Big 12, Group of Five and Notre Dame would occupy between three and five spots, probably closer to three, maybe four this year. The Big Ten only has four teams in contention, while the SEC has seven real ones, 10 if we kick it out to Missouri, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. For SMU to get in, they need to be better than either the fourth best Big Ten or SEC team.

Indiana is throwing a wrench in everything in the Big Ten and Notre Dame looms large as a national independent. For the Big 12 to get two teams in, chaos would have to ensue. Right now, the fourth best team in the SEC in Alabama edged out the second best team in the ACC in SMU. The Ponies really need for Notre Dame and a Big Ten to fall out of it, as well as hope that a fifth SEC is not worthy.

The clearest pathway in for SMU is by winning the ACC, but are on the cusp to get in as an at-large.