The only drama left in the last month of the Premier League is who will fill out the rest of the top five and secure a place in next season's Champions League. Liverpool and Arsenal have locked up the first two, but the other three chairs are currently being fought over by five pairs of buns.
A big chip fell yesterday when Manchester City last gasped Aston Villa to move back into third place. How does the whole race look? Let's take a look at all the contenders, their remaining fixtures, and their various vibes and juice indicating how they will complete those fixtures.
Manchester City
- Current place: 3rd (61 points, +23 GD)
- Remaining games: Wolves (H), Southampton (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)
- Magic number: 12 points
Schedule outlook: Pretty comfy, though not without a couple sticking points. Southampton is obviously the free spot on the bingo card. Wolves are certainly "on one" at the moment, but their five wins in a row have all come against teams 13th or lower. Bournemouth and Fulham both might have European places of their own to seal up, but they also are liable to put up any kind of performance on a given day. They could also have nothing to play for by the time those games come around. One possible wrench is if City progress to the FA Cup Final, that Bournemouth game will get pushed to the Wednesday before the final day of the season, putting City in a spot of having to play three games in a week and all of them important.
Vibes and juice: Better than it's been, for sure. Late wins over Everton and Villa have City feeling themselves, though they were hardly vintage in those matches, thus requiring the late winners. But they weren't getting late winners before, and with the added confidence, it's not hard to see them getting the three wins in four it probably takes to lock up top five. That is, until the verdict on those 115 charges arrives, if it ever arrives.
Nottingham Forest
- Current place: 4th (60 points, +14 GD)
- Remaining games: Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), Leicester (H), West Ham (A), Chelsea (H)
- Magic Number: 13 points
Schedule outlook: Cushy, though a bit packed, especially if they kneecap City on Sunday in the FA Cup semifinal. That might be a double-edged sword. Yes, it would bring them closer to a trophy, but it would also open up the schedule for City while stuffing theirs even more. Still, Leicester and West Ham are about as wiffleball as it gets. Palace will either be focused on their FA Cup final appearance or lamenting their semifinal loss with their season settled. Brentford is certainly tricky, even more so as they're a team likely to let Forest have the ball. We know Forest doesn't much to know what to do with it. Chelsea on the last day could be momentous.
Vibes and juice: Still on the low side. A win over Spurs is better than not a win over Spurs, but it doesn't portend to everything being fixed. Still, their "blip" might have been overblown. They were much better for more of the match against Villa and only lost due to a tactical dry heave from their manager, and their loss to Everton was just one of those days. If they can take the three easy outs remaining on the schedule, that should at least make the last day against Chelsea something of a winner take all. At home on the last day with a chance to clinch Champions League qualification is about all they could ask.
Newcastle United
- Current position: 5th (59 points, +18 GD)
- Remaining games: Ipswich (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (H), Arsenal (A), Everton (H)
- Magic Number: 14 points
Schedule outlook: Pretty good. Ipswich at home is as good as it gets. Brighton seem to be in free fall. Arsenal by that point in the season will either have nothing to play for or will be getting ready for a Champions League final and will be more concerned with keeping players fresh. The last day of the season will see an Everton side that will have already closed down Goodison Park the week before and coming down off all the emotions of that. Getting the crunch game against Chelsea at home is big, as Chelsea haven't really shown the kind of testicular fortitude to get a result at a baying cauldron like St. James's Park all season. Win that, collect three other wins, and Chelsea can't catch them.
Vibes and juice: Still pretty close to immaculate. Yeah, they got pretty well clobbered by Villa last weekend. But that was partly due to trying to roll out the same 11 three times in a week. They don't have to worry about that kind of gauntlet again, as they'll only play on the weekends from here on out. They'd won the six before that, and three more home wins probably gets them there. This is a settled side that knows exactly what it wants to do and can now field its strongest team the rest of the way.
Chelsea
- Current position: 6th (57 points, +18 GD)
- Remaining games: Everton (H), Liverpool (H), Newcastle (A), Manchester United (H), Nottingham Forest (A)
- Magic Number: 17 points
Schedule outlook: Iffy. Even after beating Fulham, this upcoming Everton game looks exactly like the kind where they huff and puff for 85 minutes and yet don't create much against an organized defense, and then Roberto Sánchez takes a goal-kick right into his own net or something. They'll get Liverpool, likely in the very first game after they've clinched the title, so there might be some questionable sobriety there and a break for The Blues. They're the only team that gets a crack at two other teams in the race, so it is in their hands, but both of those are away from home. Losing at Newcastle could mean the last day of the season against Forest is something of a Hail Mary, if the race even gets there.
Vibes and juice: Just this side of rancid. They showed something in coming from behind to beat Fulham, a ground where better teams than them have failed to win. But Fulham were terrible, and Chelsea still only created 0.9 xG. They just finally got some finishing luck, which they've pretty much been waiting on for two seasons. Fulham was their first win over a team that doesn't have mittens pinned to their jackets year-round in forever, so it's hard to see them backing it up with the few more they'll need to overtake someone, anyone, in the race. But, should they win both the games against Newcastle and Forest, they're likely in. They also have the Conference League to deal with, though they don't really use the regulars for that. But it will put more on the schedule.
Aston Villa
- Current position: 7th (57 points, +5 GD)
- Remaining games: Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Spurs (H), Manchester United (A)
- Magic Number: 17 points
Schedule outlook: Pretty good, but it's always a little nerve-racking when a team has to win the rest of the slate. Which is pretty much what Villa is looking at, and getting some help. The two home games should be more than doable. Away to Bournemouth is tricky, and they'll hope to catch United with their bus running and their bags packed and everyone at Old Trafford giddy that this season is finally ending. Especially if they spit up to Athletic Bilbao in the Europa League semifinal. Villa could cram their schedule more if they win their FA Cup semi on Saturday. They need to win all four and hope a couple of the teams above them drop points multiple times.
Vibes and juice: Much worse than they were on Monday. Had they been able to hold onto the draw they pretty much earned against City, they've be ahead of Chelsea and probably only needing to win out to get into the top five. Now they'll need more help, and their significantly worse goal-difference will be a factor. They could probably do with winning at Wembley on Saturday just for the pick-me-up through the rest of the season. They are the deepest team of these five, so even with an added game should the FA Cup Final be reached, they can handle it. The comfort is that none of the teams above them have shown to be anything close to a lock to sweep away all before them for the rest of the season. If anyone is most likely to do that, it's Villa.