The 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge is always one of the most fun events on the PGA Tour with the annual trip to play Colonial. Scottie Scheffler headlines the field as the heavy, heavy favorite coming off of his dominant PGA Championship win, but there are plenty of talented players in the field, such as Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood or even a Si Woo Kim, who could take him down or at least make the No. 1 player in the world sweat a bit.
When it comes to Colonial and what's required to play well in the Charles Schwab Challenge, it starts with approach play. This is a tight, short golf course and it's penal to be in the wrong spots. So playing at a top level with irons and wedges is absolutely necessary for success. The same is also true of being accurate and not in the rough too often off the tee, even if players are able to club down from the driver. So that's where we'll be looking this week to try and find some winners, which we need if, for nothing else, morale.
No two ways about it, we took a bath at the PGA Championship as we didn't hit a single bet for the week. That's going to happen but it doesn't make it suck any less. Even still, we remain up for the year and are looking to go up even more as we hand out our 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge expert picks with predictions for the winner, a Top 10 selection, sleepers and more.
Golf betting record in 2025: 16-72-0, +24.835 Units (-12.1 Units at PGA Championship) | One and Done Total for 2025: $12,124,318 (Bryson DeChambeau at PGA, $1,418,667)
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Charles Schwab Challenge golf picks to Win, finish Top 10 and One and Done
Pick to win the Charles Schwab Challenge: Si Woo Kim (+3000, Winner w/o Scheffler)
Few players are a microwave of success like Si Woo Kim. When he gets hot, it oftentimes leads to a win sooner than later. So the fact that he has two Top 8 finishes and no finish worse than T17 in his last four starts hs me intrigued — especially since that includes a major and two signature events. Kim is fourth in the field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, remains an accurate driver, and has shown positive signs with his short game. The fact that his best finish here is only T29 is the biggest concern but I'm still willing to buy into the hot hand — and protect myself from Scheffler as well.
Top 10 pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge: Ryan Gerard (+500)
If this big swing on Ryan Gerard doesn't hit, I'll lay off for a while. However, after a T8 at the PGA, he comes in doing exactly what I want to see from a player who can thrive at Colonial. He played extremely well in Texas with a runner-up at TPC San Antonio and, more comparably to this week, solo ninth at Memorial Park in Houston. Furthermore, he gained 5.56 strokes on approach last week and 7.65 strokes on approach in Houston. For a course that demands strong tee-to-green play, I think this suits his eye to continue a really terrific run for his season.
One and Done pick for the Charles Schwab Challenge: Si Woo Kim
Given the level of this event, we're not going to burn too big of a name, but I like Kim more than enough to settle on him this week. The poor course history does worry me but the upside of how he's playing and how, based on the numbers, Colonial should fit his game are enough to give me confidence.
Sleepers to watch at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
Henrik Norlander to finish Top 40 at the Charles Schwab Challenge (+170)
It almost feels like a statistical anomaly that Henrik Norlander ranks second in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds for players in this tournament. It's real, though. However, his lack of length off the tee has often hurt him at other venues, but being 16th in Good Driver Percentage in the field because of his accuracy should actually be to his benefit at Colonial. With the way he's striking the ball, getting these odds for a Top 40 is too good to pass up and not at least take a small flier on.
Davis Thompson to finish Top 20 at the Charles Schwab Challenge (+188)
Davis Thompson finished T17 at this event last year, which is where the good vibes start. Just as important, however, he'd quietly been playing quite well prior to last week's missed cut at the PGA. Before that, he'd finished T27 or better in four of his previous five events, the outlier being a T46 at The Masters. He's 12th in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds in this field and has shown a strong ability to play shorter golf courses well with his iron play. It might not seem like an ideal fit, but my gut tells me he'll make some noise this week at Colonial.
Mac Meissner to finish Top 40 at the Charles Schwab Challenge (+200)
Mac Meissner, admittedly, isn't in his best for right now. A big reason for that has been some inconsistent approach play. However, after finishing T5 at last year's Charles Schwab Challenge, I'm intrigued, especially if he can club down a bit and be more accurate with the driver. That's because, on this shorter golf course, he's third in this field in SG: Approach from 150-175 yards out over the last 24 rounds. He could make a living in that range and, for only a Top 40 at 2/1, that strength could carry him to cashing for us this week.