The Kansas City Chiefs were the perfect landing spot for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who was selected with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Andy Reid's West Coast scheme was tailor-made for a rocket-armed gunslinger, and the star-studded offense was equipped with talent and speed. All-purpose running back Kareem Hunt was flanked by two future Hall of Famers, tight end Travis Kelce and wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
After Mahomes found unprecedented success early in his career, he was immediately compared to Tom Brady, who is widely regarded to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history.
The longevity of Brady’s career is difficult to grasp. Despite popular belief, he began his career in an era where defensive players were still allowed to punish quarterbacks. Yet, Brady sustained his greatness at a higher level — and for much longer — than anyone who preceded him. By the end of his career, he was playing against the children of his former rivals. As one former teammate revealed, Brady would tell opposing defensive players, “I used to play against your dad. Ask your dad about me.”
As great as Mahomes has been, the comparisons are premature. Mahomes’ résumé simply isn’t long enough to enter the conversation, and he’ll need longevity to even come close to many of Brady's records. Sustained success will require adapting to the ebbs and flows that come with a long career. There will be roster turnover, coaching changes, personnel adjustments, new schematic trends, injuries, and — the most inevitable of them all — Father Time. Mahomes relies on his physical athleticism and whip-like release to create magic on broken plays. That acrobatic ability will deteriorate over time.
Football is also a game of attrition. If Father Time doesn't catch a player, fatigue often does. By age 30, even the most jubilant and energetic players begin to wear down from the daily monotony of film study, meetings, practices and training room sessions. Family becomes more important while football becomes more tasking.
"Tom’s skewed people’s brains on how hard that is to do because of how well he took care of his body," Mahomes told TIME in 2023. "I’ve looked, if I played until Tom [Brady]’s age, my daughter would be 19 [or] 20 years old. I would love to play that long. At the same time, I want to be there for my daughter. If I can do that, I’ll continue to play. But if I feel like it’s taking away from my family time, that’s when I’ll know it’s time to go."
To have a chance of catching Brady, he'll have to endure all of that — and much more. As Brady once said, “If you’re going to compete against me, you better be willing to give up your life — because I’m giving up mine.”
Here’s a look at some of Brady's records and how much longer Mahomes would have to sustain his current success in order to break them.
649 career passing touchdowns
Kansas City’s star-studded offense made things easy for Mahomes, and he began his career with fireworks. Mahomes was named the 2018 NFL Most Valuable Player of the Year after throwing for a career-high 50 passing touchdowns in his first season as a starter.
Although he hasn’t reached that total ever since, he has found the end zone fairly consistently throughout his career. Mahomes currently has 245 passing touchdowns — 404 less than Brady. Through his seven seasons as a starter, he has averaged 35 touchdowns per season.
At his current pace, Mahomes would need to play 12 more seasons to surpass Brady’s record. He would become the all-time leader in career passing touchdowns during the 2036 season at age 42.
251 career wins
Mahomes has posted an astounding 89-23-0 record (.794) through seven years as a starter. His winning percentage is the best of any quarterback in NFL history with at least 25 starts. He’s still a staggering 162 wins behind Brady, who holds the all-time record with 251 career wins.
Brady has at least 65 more wins than any other quarterback. Hall of Fame quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brett Favre are currently tied for second place with 186 wins.
Mahomes likely won’t be able to sustain his current winning percentage — he would need to win roughly 14 games per season to prevent it from taking a dip. He’s won 14 or more games in three of his seven seasons. Even if Mahomes maintains his winning rate, it would take him roughly 206 more games to surpass Brady's record.
If Mahomes plays all 17 games per season, he would become the winningest quarterback in NFL history during the 2037 season at age 43. If he accomplishes that feat, he would have done it in 15 fewer career games (318) than Brady (333).
7 Super Bowl wins
In his 21 years as a starter, Brady had a higher chance of making it to the Super Bowl (45.4 percent) than Steph Curry has of making a 3-point shot (42.4 percent). He made 10 Super Bowl appearances, and his seven Super Bowl championships are more than any team has won in their franchise history.
Mahomes hasn’t been a slouch either — he’s made five Super Bowl appearances in his seven seasons as a starter. Mahomes had an opportunity to win three straight champions in Super Bowl LIX, but Philadelphia’s triumphant 40-22 victory set Mahomes back quite a bit.
Mahomes have to find a way to win more of those Super Bowl games if he wants to stay in contention for the record. When Brady made five Super Bowl appearances in a seven-year span late in his career, he walked away with four championships compared to Mahomes’ three.
Mahomes now holds a 3-2 record (.600) in Super Bowls compared to Brady’s 7-3 record (.700). Five Super Bowl appearances in a seven-year span is an unsustainable rate, but he could improve his Super Bowl winning percentage to make up for fewer appearances.
At his current pace, Mahomes could hypothetically win his eighth Super Bowl championship after the 2036 season, at age 42.
Mahomes is currently in a tie with three-time champion Troy Aikman, but still behind Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw, who both won four Super Bowls during their careers.
How drastically could these projections change? Just a year ago, he was on pace to tie Brady’s seven Super Bowl championships after the 2031 season, when he’ll be 36 years old. Another Super Bowl win next year would put him on pace to win eight titles by the end of the 2033 season, at age 38.
35 postseason wins
The relatively small sample size of Mahomes’ playoff games makes it difficult to project any future success. Consider this: Despite winning three of his last four postseason games, Mahomes’ postseason winning rate has actually dropped from 82.3 percent to 80.9 percent because of the one loss.
Still, his playoff success through seven seasons is remarkable. Mahomes has a 17-4 record (.809) in seven postseason appearances. He’s already surpassed Joe Montana’s 16 playoff wins for the second-most playoff wins in NFL history. Peyton Manning, John Elway and Terry Bradshaw all have fewer playoff wins.
Brady didn’t earn his 17th playoff win until his 12th season as a starter, but Mahomes still isn’t even halfway to Brady’s record of 35 postseason victories. Mahomes would need to win 18 more playoff games to tie that record.
Mahomes has won an average of 2.43 playoff games per season. At that pace, he would only need to play eight more seasons to become the NFL’s all-time leader in playoff victories. Mahomes would surpass Brady’s record in the playoffs following the 2031 season, at age 36. In this case, the NFL’s new playoff format — which no longer awards a bye week to the second seed — could provide Mahomes with more playoff games each season.
11 consecutive division titles
Brady led the Patriots to 11 straight division titles from 2009 to 2019, his last year in New England. The Chiefs have already won nine consecutive division titles, but Mahomes has only been the starter for the last seven. If Mahomes leads the Chiefs to a division title for another five seasons, he would take the record in 2029, at age 34.
In some ways, Mahomes’ head-to-head matchups with Brady were similar to his head-to-head matchups with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. While Allen has gotten the better of Mahomes in the regular season, Mahomes has defeated Allen in all four of their playoff matchups.
Mahomes got the better of Brady in the regular season, winning three of their four matchups. Brady, as he often did, got the last laugh in the postseason. He defeated Mahomes in two championship games — an overtime classic in the 2018 AFC Championship Game and a legacy-defining blowout in Super Bowl LV. Of Mahomes' four playoff losses, two were against Brady.
Without Brady standing in his way, Mahomes will continue his pursuit of greatness as a 30-year-old veteran in 2025.
All statistics assume the NFL retains a 17-game regular season format, which began during the 2021 NFL season.