Chicago Cubs should steer clear of red flags surrounding Carlos Estevez

Just under one year ago, the Chicago Cubs signed Hector Neris to a one-year deal, which ultimately blew up in their face, resulting in the team DFAing him in late August. On the surface, the Neris deal was widely accepted as a good move for the Cubs, who needed bullpen help majorly. Neris posted some of his best numbers in 2023, the year prior, before imploding with the Cubs in 2024. However, a look under the hood before signing Neris revealed ominous warnings that regression was coming.

Enter 2025, with the Cubs pursuing Carlos Estevez after "on the surface" numbers that are impressive enough to have him become one of the more sought-after free-agent relievers this winter. Unfortunately, the same red flags that existed with Neris are here with Estevez.

Before the signing, I advocated for Neris to the Cubs because I failed to dig deep enough into the advanced stats and analytics. This year, I'm looking to correct my mistakes and refine my knowledge of what could be in store for players in the upcoming season. With that, let's look at some side-by-side comparisons of Neris and Estevez and ultimately decide if this signing is worth the risk for a team like the Cubs, who must hit the nail on the head with a closer in 2025:

Neris 2023: 1.17 ERA
Estevez 2024: 2.45 ERA

A simple look at ERA shows why both players were sought after. Sometimes, however, ERA can be overshadowed by good or bad luck. For instance, consider "Batting average on balls in play" or BABIP. A BABIP of .300 is widely regarded as league-average for both hitters and pitchers. This means that when a ball is put in play, on average, a hitter will record a hit 30% of the time, AKA hit .300 on balls in play.

Likewise, for pitchers, when they allow a ball in play, it will be a hit 30% of the time. If a hitter's BABIP is well above .300, there's room for concern that those numbers will regress to the norm. Likewise, if a pitcher's BABIP is well below .300, the same thing happens; you can bet that unless he has crazy-high strikeout numbers, regression will eventually come.

Neris 2023: .219 BABIP
Neris 2024: .297 BABIP

Estevez 2024: .229 BABIP

Of course, not all pitchers are the same, and this is a mere comparison. However, it's important to note how hard it is to replicate a well below-average BABIP in baseball. .229 for Estevez was his career-best, followed by a mark of .247 in 2022. Nevertheless, when Neris' BABIP jumped back closer to the league average, so did his ERA, which went from 1.17 in 2023 to 4.10 in 2024. Does that automatically mean Estevez will suffer the same fate? No. But there is more to reveal that his 2025 might not be as stellar as last year.

When Neris' BABIP jumped back closer to the league average the following year, so did his ERA, which went from 1.17 in 2023 to 4.10 in 2024. Does that automatically mean Estevez will suffer the same fate? No. But there is more to reveal that his 2025 might not be as stellar as last year.

Neris 2023 second half: 3.84 FIP, 4.73 xFIP
Estevez 2024 second half: 3.79 FIP, 4.66 xFIP

If you're unaware, FIP (fielding independent pitching) is a sabermetric used to adjust a pitcher's ERA, accounting for situations where luck may have been a factor. Example: The bases are loaded, and Kyle Schwarber hits a long fly ball that only reaches the warning track because the wind is blowing in that day. For that inning, the pitcher winds up recording a 0.00 ERA because no runs were scored, but his FIP is much higher because it's clear he narrowly escaped giving up four runs in a grand slam.

Vise versa for things that could be perceived as bad luck, such as a play that wasn't labeled an error, charging the pitcher with earned runs on a play that likely should have been made. Poor defense often leads to a higher ERA and lower FIP.

Understanding this concept indicates the good luck both Neris and Estevez started to receive toward the end of their respective seasons. With a low BABIP and FIP (as well as xFIP, or expected FIP) beginning to rise much higher than their ERA, signs of regression were already appearing.

Neris' FIP sat around 3.80 for the whole season, indicating good luck was on his side over the course of the year than just the first half, but Estevez had a more dramatic spike as the season went on last year. In the first half of 2024, Estevez recorded a 2.61 ERA (2.81 FIP) and a 2.25 ERA (3.79 FIP) in the second half. Both players' BABIP and second-half numbers from their breakout campaigns are eerily similar, asking whether rolling the dice on history repeating itself is worth it in Chicago.

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Cubs need someone that they can be more confident in

Ultimately, does all this mean that Estevez will be awful in 2025? No. Even a 3.79 FIP isn't the worst thing, considering the league-average ERA in 2024 was 4.07. The point is that the Cubs can ill-afford to have any issues with whoever they slot into the closer role in 2025. Even though they were missing a superstar bat in their lineup last season (i.e., Kyle Tucker), the Cubs would have been much closer to playoff contention had they not blown the 6th most saves (26).

Had they been more in the middle with only 20 blown saves, that equates to six more wins and a record of 89-73. Now you factor in the Cubs adding Tucker's bat, which should have a higher WAR than Cody Bellinger in 2024, helping to add more wins. Simple math tells you a better closer now can catapult this Cubs team to the 90-win mark.

Again, I'm not implying Estevez will be horrible in 2025 by any stretch. But, even a closer with a 3.00 ERA who, on average, gives up a run every three innings, compared to a closer with a 2.00 ERA who allows a run every 4.5 innings, can make all the difference in the world. For the above reasons, I don't foresee Estevez recording a mark closer to 2.00.

Therefore, It's unnecessary to take that chance on a player like Estevez, who is in line for regression at a time when the Cubs must improve on slamming the door in the 9th if they wish to get back to the playoffs this year. If there's strong reason to believe he could regress, steer clear. There are relievers with better peripherals available.